Fossil Fuel Emissions Fall 0.4% as Iran War Squeezes Oil Use

Global carbon dioxide emissions from burning oil, gas and coal are projected to fall 0.4% this year, according to the 2026 Global Carbon Budget report. Live Science reported it is the first annual drop in fossil fuel CO2 since the coronavirus pandemic in 2020, but researchers caution that high prices and fuel shortages caused by the Iran war explain much of the decline.

The report was published Nov. 10 in the journal Earth System Science Data and is due to be presented at the U.N. climate conference, COP31, in Antalya, Turkey, this week.

What the new numbers show

The report projects 38.2 billion metric tons of CO2 from fossil fuels this year. ABC News in Australia reported that oil emissions, down 2%, are the main driver of the decline, likely because of prolonged disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. At the same time, the world's appetite for energy keeps growing, and solar and wind power are meeting a rising share of the extra demand.

Judith Hauck, a biogeoscientist at the Alfred Wegener Institute in Germany and a study co-author, told Live Science that demand growth alone would have pushed fossil CO2 emissions up by about 0.8 gigatons. About two-thirds of that growth was met by solar, wind and electric vehicles, she said. Higher energy prices from the Iran conflict also cut demand by 0.4%. "Only together with the energy crisis" did emissions turn negative, she said.

Who is cutting, and who is not

The projected changes vary widely by country:

• China: down 0.9%, because of a plunge in oil emissions and growth in renewable power.
• United States: down 1.3%, mainly from lower coal emissions after a spike last year.
• European Union: down 1.5%.
• Japan: down 1%.
• India: up 4.4%, above its annual average growth of 3.5% over the past decade.
• Rest of the world: down 0.7%.

The report also found 40 countries whose fossil fuel emissions have declined over the past 10 years while their economies grew. Pep Canadell, executive director of the Global Carbon Project, said that is double the number from the previous decade.

Why scientists urge caution

Joeri Rogelj, a climate scientist at Imperial College London who was not involved in the research, told Live Science the projected decline is very small, though he called it an encouraging sign that emissions growth is slowing. The report authors suggested the drop is a short-term response to supply constraints and higher prices, and Hauck said she expects emissions to rebound if the conflict ends, as they did after the pandemic dip.

Lead researcher Pierre Friedlingstein of the University of Exeter said a decline driven partly by geopolitical shocks is not a sustainable climate solution, ABC reported. He said clean energy is not yet growing fast enough to produce a lasting fall.

Total emissions from all sources are still projected to rise from 42.8 billion metric tons last year to a record 43.3 billion metric tons this year. Peat fires, deforestation and forest fires linked to dry El Niño conditions are behind the increase.

Why it matters for the climate goal

The amount of CO2 the world can still emit before warming reaches 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels is now 150 billion metric tons. At current rates, that budget would be used up in less than four years. Hauck said she thinks the 1.5-degree target has probably already been missed and that it could only be regained through large-scale removal of CO2 from the air, though she still hopes warming stays between 1.5 and 2 degrees.

For ordinary people, the findings link two things many households feel directly: fuel prices and climate change. According to the IEA, cited by ABC, continued high oil prices from the Iran conflict have sped up the shift to renewables, especially in emerging economies. Some energy researchers told ABC that electric vehicles have reached a tipping point. The report authors say lasting cuts depend on continued deployment of solar, wind, batteries and electric vehicles.

What happens next

Negotiators at COP31 this week will see the figures. Rogelj said the shift toward cleaner energy must accelerate so that it is not outpaced by growth in energy demand. The authors expect a steady decline in fossil CO2 in the next few years, Hauck said, provided the push to deploy clean technology continues.

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Around Prague, based on reporting by ABC News (Australia), Live Science