Summer Heat Killed More Than 50,000 in European Cities, New Study Estimates

Heat killed an estimated 50,000 or more people in European towns and cities during the summer of 2026, according to a new study that researchers say points to the continent's deadliest summer on record, The Independent reported. The study, to be published in Nature Health, found that about two-thirds of the excess deaths can be attributed to climate change.

Researchers from Imperial College London and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine produced the estimates. They looked at 854 urban areas, which together account for roughly 40 percent of the population of the EU, the U.K., Norway and Switzerland. The outlet said the modeling approach has previously produced results consistent with official figures.

The key numbers

• More than 50,000: estimated heat-related deaths across the cities studied, with about two-thirds of the excess deaths linked to climate change.
• 13,303: estimated excess deaths in Italy, the highest total of any country. Scientists linked 8,772 of them to human-made climate change during June-August 2026.
• 22,204: estimated excess deaths in Southern Europe, the highest of any region, though thousands of deaths were also recorded in northern countries such as the U.K.
• 716: standardized excess deaths per million people in Malta, the highest rate. Italy followed at 561, Hungary at 537 and Croatia at 461.
• 4,354: estimated excess deaths in Britain's urban areas, of which 2,535 were deaths that would not have happened without severe heat driven by climate change, the study said.

What is behind the toll

The study's authors said the heat deaths were not limited to one part of the continent. The estimated toll was highest in Southern Europe, but thousands of deaths were also seen in northern European countries such as the U.K., which shows how widely the severe heat was felt during the summer.

According to the report, almost a third of all estimated European heat deaths for the summer occurred between June 17 and July 1. During that stretch, temperatures across the entire region were more than 5C above average.

The study separates raw death counts from rates. Italy had the largest number of excess deaths, while Malta had the highest rate once population size is taken into account.

What this means for people in the affected countries

The researchers framed the findings as a public health issue. Dr. Clair Barnes, an extreme weather and climate change researcher at Imperial College London's Centre for Environmental Policy, said she is quite confident that summer 2026 is likely to have been the worst on record for heat-related deaths across much of Europe.

Barnes said the figures show that hotter, more extreme summers are having an increasingly severe effect on public health. She noted that behind the statistics are people who died and families who are grieving.

She called for targeted measures to protect the most vulnerable people from extreme heat. She also urged a rapid move away from fossil fuels to slow the pace of climate change and limit future warming.

The numbers are modeled estimates of excess deaths, meaning deaths above what would be expected without the heat, rather than counts of individual deaths certified as heat-related. The outlet reported that the estimates rely on modeling previously shown to match official figures.

Around Prague, based on reporting by The Independent