Anthropic Starts IPO Roadshow as Valuation Talk Falls to $1.2 Trillion

Anthropic is moving ahead with the roadshow for its initial public offering, even as investors discuss a valuation well below earlier expectations. According to Bloomberg reports relayed by TokenPost and TechFlow, potential buyers are talking about $1.2 trillion to $1.3 trillion, with some considering as little as $1.1 trillion. Early-October talk had reached as high as $2 trillion, according to The Daily Upside.

The offering is now a live test of how much public investors will pay for a leading AI company after a rough stretch for AI stocks. No final price has been set, and the valuation talks are not an IPO price.

The key numbers behind the Anthropic IPO

• $1.2 trillion to $1.3 trillion: the valuation range some potential investors are discussing, according to Bloomberg as cited by TokenPost and TechFlow. Some are weighing $1.1 trillion.
• $1.4 trillion to $1.5 trillion: the range seen as reasonable before last week's selloff in U.S. stocks, according to TokenPost and The Daily Upside.
• $2 trillion: the figure that circulated in early October, according to The Daily Upside.
• $16.3 billion: first-half revenue, which The Daily Upside said grew about fourteenfold from a year earlier, citing Anthropic's S-1 filing.
• $16.956 billion: third-quarter revenue, up 1,127% from a year earlier, according to TechFlow's account of the prospectus. Quarter-on-quarter growth slowed to 47% from 144% in the second quarter. The two outlets describe revenue over different periods, and the sources do not reconcile them.
• $895.4 billion: total commitments for computing power and infrastructure spending disclosed by the company, per TechFlow.

Why investors want a lower price

Two forces are pulling on the valuation, according to the reports. The first is politics. TokenPost said expectations have been affected by a Democratic sweep of Congress and worries that the government will look harder at data center expansion. TechFlow reported that after the midterm elections, new officials skeptical of AI issued moratoriums that could slow U.S. data center construction. It said Nasdaq Composite stocks lost $2.5 trillion in market value in a single day.

The second is the company's finances. TechFlow, citing the prospectus, said Anthropic had an operating loss of $567 million and a net loss of $23.291 billion in the third quarter. It attributed the loss mainly to about $5 billion in short-term computing purchases and roughly $2 billion in non-cash costs tied to an employee donation matching program. According to Reuters, as cited by TechFlow, investors are waiting for Anthropic's October revenue figures to judge whether growth can pick back up.

The company is also lining up power for its data centers. TokenPost reported that in late September Anthropic secured a $3.4 billion purchase commitment for 1.7 gigawatts of gas generators from Texas supplier OnePWR Solutions.

Why it matters beyond one company

TechFlow described the offering as a bellwether for AI valuations more broadly. In its account, the outcome will influence how the market views the heavy spending on AI infrastructure and the prospects of making money from it.

Pricing carries risk both ways, TechFlow reported. A price set too high could weaken demand and push the stock down after it starts trading. A price set too low invites criticism that money was left on the table. Bankers sometimes steer companies toward a range slightly under expectations so it can be raised if demand is strong.

The Daily Upside added a competitive angle. It reported that OpenAI has filed confidentially to go public as soon as next year. It said OpenAI was freshly valued at $1.25 trillion in a private funding round. TechFlow described that round differently, saying OpenAI raised less than half its initial funding target and fell short of a $1.25 trillion valuation goal. Reports differ on how that round went.

Matt Kennedy, a senior strategist at Renaissance Capital, said an Anthropic IPO is unlike a typical one. In TechFlow's account, he said current conditions may not force a delay, but investors may demand bigger discounts and lower valuations. He also noted that companies typically consider postponing IPOs when the VIX volatility index stays above 25. TechFlow said the VIX had risen above the 25 to 28 level before a market recovery brought it down.

What happens next

Under the rules, Anthropic can begin formal marketing as early as Nov. 10, after publicly filing its prospectus on Oct. 26, according to Bloomberg as cited by TechFlow. The company has investor meetings scheduled this week, The Daily Upside reported.

If things go smoothly, Anthropic hopes to price its shares the week of Nov. 16 and list on the Nasdaq before Thanksgiving on Nov. 26. Bloomberg, via TechFlow, reported the ticker symbol would be ANT and that trading could start the Thursday or Friday of next week. Filings expected this week should show how many shares will be sold and at what planned price. They may also name well-known investors who have committed to buy.

The company is not locked into the schedule and could still delay, according to both The Daily Upside and TechFlow. TechFlow said a delay might spark market worry.

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Around Prague, based on reporting by www.tokenpost.com, The Daily Upside, 深潮TechFlow