Democrats Push Into Kansas and Mississippi in Bid to Flip the Senate

Democrats are putting resources into Senate races in two deeply Republican states, hoping to build a path to a majority. NBC News reported Tuesday that Senate Majority PAC, the party's leading Senate super PAC, is launching a $1.2 million ad campaign in Mississippi. The Guardian reports that the race in Kansas is too close to call.

Democrats need a net gain of four seats to take control of the Senate, according to NBC. That would require winning multiple states that President Donald Trump carried by wide margins in 2024.

The key numbers behind the red-state push

• Four seats: The net gain Democrats need to win Senate control, per NBC News.
• $1.2 million: The size of Senate Majority PAC's ad campaign in Mississippi, which will run through Election Day on TV and digital platforms.
• 23 points: Trump's margin of victory in Mississippi two years ago. NBC called it the reddest state the group has entered so far.
• 16 points: Trump's margin in Kansas, where the super PAC is also spending, according to NBC and the Guardian.
• 1982: The last year a Democrat won a Senate race in Mississippi.
• 1932: The last time Kansas sent a Democrat to the U.S. Senate, the Guardian reported.

Kansas: a pastor challenges a Republican incumbent

The Guardian reports that Democrat Adam Hamilton, the senior pastor of the country's largest United Methodist congregation, is challenging Republican Sen. Roger Marshall. Some recent polls show Hamilton on course for a win, the paper said.

Hamilton describes himself as an independent-minded Democrat and is courting independents and Republicans. He told business leaders in Topeka on Friday that Kansas would benefit from having a Democrat and a Republican, Sen. Jerry Moran, working across the aisle. In a campaign video he said he would not answer to a party or to any single person in Washington.

The Guardian also pointed to Marshall's record as a physician as a liability. It reported that he sued hundreds of his patients over unpaid bills, and that dozens were arrested as a result. The Guardian's account does not include a response from Marshall on that point.

Voters at Hamilton's Topeka event raised cost-of-living concerns. Brennen Ross, a 20-year-old student at Washburn University who is unaffiliated and leaning toward Hamilton, named housing costs, the job market for young people and rural water supplies. Susana Ortiz, a counselor who is undecided, said frustration over costs may make people more open to crossing party lines. Several voters said they wanted more specific answers from Hamilton.

Mississippi: a prosecutor against a Trump-endorsed senator

In Mississippi, Senate Majority PAC's first ad backs Scott Colom, a district attorney, and portrays Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith as a "do-nothing" incumbent. Spokesperson Lauren French said in a statement that Colom is running a competitive race that has put Hyde-Smith on the defensive.

Hyde-Smith has Trump's endorsement. She was appointed to the Senate in 2018 and won a full term in 2020 by 10 points, NBC reported. Colom told NBC when he launched his campaign last year that Hyde-Smith's vote for Trump's tax and spending law, which cut Medicaid funds, motivated him to run. NBC also noted that Hyde-Smith once blocked his nomination to a federal judgeship during the Biden administration, and that Colom said he had forgiven her.

NBC said the super PAC, which is aligned with Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, has shifted its attention to deep-red states amid falling approval ratings for Trump. It is also spending in Alaska, Texas and Iowa, states Trump won by double digits in 2024.

Why it matters for voters

For residents of these states, the contests mean more campaign advertising and candidate visits in places that have rarely seen competitive Senate races. Both campaigns are built around everyday costs, including health insurance premiums, housing and farm economics in Kansas, and Medicaid funding in Mississippi.

The outcomes could also affect which party controls the Senate, which sets the course for federal legislation and confirmations. Both races remain contested, and neither Democrat has won a Senate seat in their state in decades.

Sources: The Guardian, NBC News