First Russian Diesel Tanker Since Trump-Putin Deal Sails for New York

A tanker loaded with Russian diesel set sail for the United States on Friday, the first shipment since President Donald Trump agreed to a deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin to release more fuel into the global market, NBC News reported. The Kremlin confirmed the departure, but analysts quoted by NBC say the cargo is small next to U.S. demand.

The Malta-flagged ship, the Agioi Fanendes, left the Russian port of Primorsk and listed New York as its destination, according to MarineTraffic tracking data reviewed by NBC News. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said further shipments would follow on a regular basis.

The diesel shipment by the numbers

• 298,000 barrels: the amount of diesel the ship loaded in Primorsk, according to the market intelligence firm Energy Aspects, which said it confirmed the figure with industry sources.
• Nov. 10: the expected arrival date in New York, per Energy Aspects, which would put the cargo in port just after the midterm elections.
• $3.55 to $6.32: the rise in the average price of a gallon of diesel since the start of the year, which NBC News described as an unprecedented increase of 78%.
• 3.8M barrels per day: approximate U.S. daily diesel demand, meaning this shipment would cover not even a full day of use, NBC reported.
• $114 per barrel: where Brent, the main global oil benchmark, was trading, less than $13 below its highest point this year. Crude was headed for a third straight weekly gain.

What is behind the policy shift

Trump eased some sanctions on Russia two weeks ago and has waived more since, reversing years of American policy even as Moscow continues its invasion of Ukraine, NBC reported. The outlet described the move as an apparent effort to lower fuel prices ahead of the midterms. Republicans are bracing for potentially heavy losses in House and Senate seats, driven in part by voter anger over soaring energy costs, according to NBC.

Russia has historically been one of the world's largest diesel exporters. NBC said the Kremlin restricted diesel exports in September and for part of October amid a Ukrainian campaign of attacks on its energy infrastructure, and lifted those limits after the Trump-Putin deal.

The sanctions relief is one of several steps the administration has taken. Trump signed an order allowing wider use of an off-road variety of diesel, and the administration pressed European allies, particularly Germany and France, to release some of their diesel reserves. It has also reportedly sought a fresh release of crude and diesel reserves, a request the International Energy Agency rebuffed, NBC reported.

The approach has drawn outrage from Ukraine and its bipartisan backers in Congress, the outlet reported, as Trump has taken a number of steps to warm ties with the Kremlin and press Kyiv to agree to end the war.

Why it matters for prices

Diesel affects far more than truck drivers. KPMG chief economist Diane Swonk told NBC News in August that the cost of diesel feeds into nearly everything, from running a farm to shipping goods across the economy, so higher diesel costs show up in food and other products.

Global fuel markets are tight. Bank of America's head of global commodities, Francisco Blanch, wrote in a recent note that distillate markets have tightened sharply, which he said signals an acute scarcity of refined products. He pointed to attacks on shipping around Hormuz and on Russian refining capacity as factors making supplies harder and costlier to move. Diesel is a distillate fuel produced by refining crude oil.

Analysts at Energy Aspects told NBC that the impact of the cargo's arrival would likely be limited. Experts told the network that even taken together, the administration's actions are unlikely to do much to ease prices that have continued to trend higher. Blanch wrote that policy intervention can provide temporary relief, but that there is no silver bullet for diesel.

Price pressure on diesel has been tied to supply shocks stemming from the Iran war and the war between Russia and Ukraine, NBC reported, and the administration has scrambled to bring costs down.

Around Prague, based on reporting by NBC News