Israel Votes in a Tight Race That May Not Produce a Quick Winner
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Israelis vote Oct. 27 in an election that many there describe as the most consequential in the country's history. It pits Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's right-wing and religious bloc against an opposition alliance led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot. Polls do not point to a decisive majority for either side, so the final result could take weeks or months to emerge, according to NPR.
The election is the first since the Hamas-led attacks of Oct. 7, 2023, and it takes place while Israel is still fighting on several fronts. President Trump has also entered the campaign, endorsing Netanyahu and tying the future of a joint war against Iran to the result.
Why a clear winner may not emerge quickly
Voters do not choose a prime minister directly. They pick a party list for the 120-seat Knesset, and a leader must then assemble a coalition of at least 61 lawmakers, NPR reported. The party that finishes first does not automatically get the job.
CBS News reported that polls vary widely by pollster. Right-leaning firms favor Netanyahu's bloc, and left-leaning firms favor the opposition. NPR said recent polls show Netanyahu trailing Eisenkot, though no bloc appears sure of a majority. Yohanan Plesner, president of the Israel Democracy Institute, told CBS that an “indecisive outcome is the most likely outcome.”
The two camps
Netanyahu, Israel's longest-serving prime minister, leads the Likud party and wants a coalition like his current one, which relies on ultranationalist and religious parties. CBS said he argues that only he can govern without Arab parties and that he needs more time to finish Israel's military campaigns, especially against Iran.
Trump said last week that if Israel has a leader other than Netanyahu, “anyone other than Bibi,” the U.S. would have to handle the Iran work itself and he is not inclined to. Netanyahu has since argued that only he can work with Trump to keep Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon. Eisenkot accused him of running a campaign of fear and lies, citing an AI-generated image of a mushroom cloud over Tel Aviv that Netanyahu posted.
Eisenkot leads the new Yashar party, which CBS calls centrist and NPR calls center-right. He has pledged not to join a government led by Netanyahu. Alhurra reported that former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett is allied with Eisenkot, Yair Lapid, Avigdor Lieberman and Yair Golan, though Bennett caused controversy this month by suggesting Netanyahu could join a future government under certain conditions. Alhurra, citing The Times of Israel, said he later backtracked.
Factors that could tip the balance
Arab turnout. Alhurra, citing a Stat-Net Institute poll reported by Reuters, said Arab turnout could reach about 63%, up from more than 53% in 2022. Madar estimates 1.18 million Arab citizens are eligible, roughly 16% of the electorate. Plesner said higher Arab turnout makes it less likely Netanyahu can form another government with his current partners. NPR noted that most major Jewish parties, including Eisenkot's, are reluctant to rely on Arab parties, which could leave the opposition short of 61 seats.
The threshold. A list needs at least 3.25% of the vote to enter the Knesset, Alhurra reported. Several small right-wing lists could fall short, and votes for them would not become seats, which could hurt Netanyahu's bloc. A total of 38 parties and lists are running, per The Times of Israel.
Security. Two Israeli soldiers were shot and killed near Hebron days before the vote, according to Alhurra. Netanyahu warned that enemies might try to attack before the election. Opposition figures have accused him of fearmongering.
What's at stake for Israelis and for the U.S.
NPR said the vote will shape several long-running disputes. One is whether to set up a state inquiry into the failures before Oct. 7, in which about 1,200 people were killed and 251 were taken hostage. Netanyahu has resisted an inquiry, while Eisenkot and other opposition leaders say they would establish one soon after taking office.
Another is whether ultra-Orthodox men should serve in the military, which NPR said the army argues it needs. Netanyahu relies on ultra-Orthodox parties and has resisted the idea, while Eisenkot wants to widen service. A third is the power of Israel's courts: Netanyahu's far-right partners want to limit it, and Eisenkot backs an independent judiciary. Netanyahu is on trial for corruption and says the charges are politically motivated.
For the U.S., the result may affect the Iran war that Trump and Netanyahu launched almost eight months ago, according to CBS.
What happens next
If neither bloc reaches 61 seats, CBS said, the country could see long negotiations across ideological lines, a minority government or another election. NPR listed possible paths, including an Eisenkot-led minority government relying on Arab parties' support, or a broad unity government with Netanyahu, which Eisenkot has publicly ruled out.
