Tesla Earnings Preview: Merger Talk, AI Spending and Delivery Numbers in Focus

Tesla is about to report third-quarter financial results, and Wall Street is paying as much attention to a possible tie-up with SpaceX and the company's AI spending as to car sales, according to Business Insider. Analysts are heading into the report in an upbeat mood, the outlet said.

The merger question gained weight on Tuesday. Business Insider reported that Elon Musk said during SpaceX's earnings call that a committee had been set up to explore a potential combination with Tesla. Talk of a deal has circulated since SpaceX went public this summer.

The key numbers behind the earnings setup

• 486,532 vehicles delivered. Tesla's third-quarter sales beat the 461,974 that analysts expected, Business Insider reported. Deliveries were still down 2% from a year earlier.
• About $373 a share. That was where Tesla stock traded on Tuesday. It is down 14% so far this year and 22% below its all-time high from late 2025.
• 80% chance of a merger. Dan Ives of Yorkville Ives & Co put those odds on Tesla and SpaceX being joined by the end of next year, citing strategic and data-related reasons.
• $500 price target. Yorkville Ives kept its "outperform" rating and this target, which it said implies 34% upside from current levels.
• $450 fair value. Morningstar kept its 3-star rating and this estimate, which it said implies 20% upside. It called the shares "slightly undervalued."
• $480 and $485. RBC Capital Markets said $480 a share could be reasonable if SpaceX acquires Tesla, a 30% premium to the current price. Cantor set a $485 target, which it said implies 30% upside.

What analysts say they are listening for

Business Insider said analysts want more clues about a merger and details on capital spending, as Tesla increasingly becomes a story about AI investment. Cantor said investors would stay focused on the expansion of the robotaxi fleet, adoption of full self-driving and production updates for Optimus Gen 3. Morningstar said investors would likely look to near-term guidance for the robotaxi and humanoid robot products.

On the merger itself, views differ on what to expect from the call. Cantor said management is unlikely to comment on it, though the firm called a merger "likely." RBC said it has no knowledge of a transaction or its timing, but sees meaningful synergies in a combination.

The recently unveiled Roadster is also part of the conversation. Ives said the car is unlikely to change growth expectations because production is limited. He added that it has helped restore the brand's halo. Morningstar's Seth Goldstein said it could support higher deliveries once production starts in 2028. Cantor called the car "breathtaking" but said it is unlikely to add much to Tesla's profit for now.

What this means for Tesla investors and watchers

For anyone following Tesla stock, including holders of funds that own it, the report is a test of two narratives. One is the car business, which has faced worries about profit margins and a slowdown in U.S. electric vehicle demand, according to Business Insider. The other is Tesla's pitch as an AI and robotics company, where analysts are looking for specifics on spending and product timelines.

A SpaceX merger, if it came, could affect how Tesla shares are valued. RBC's $480 figure shows how one firm thinks a deal could be priced. The price targets above are analyst opinions, not predictions the company has confirmed, and they vary widely in how much upside they imply.

For drivers and prospective buyers, the delivery numbers are the most concrete sign of demand. Morningstar said Tesla's delivery growth appeared to be driven by its full self-driving technology.

What to watch on the call

The report will show whether Tesla offers any new detail on the committee Musk mentioned, how much it plans to spend on AI projects, and what timelines it gives for robotaxi expansion and Optimus Gen 3 production. Analysts quoted by Business Insider expect those topics to drive the discussion.

Around Prague, based on reporting by Business Insider