What to Watch as Midterm Polls Close and Why Control of Congress May Take Days

Millions of Americans are voting in midterm elections that will decide whether President Donald Trump's Republicans or the opposition Democrats control Congress. The BBC reported that once polls close, projections could take hours, days or even weeks, depending on how tight the key races turn out to be.

Voters are choosing all 435 House seats, a share of the Senate and a slate of governors. Control of Congress hinges on a few competitive contests rather than on the many seats that reliably go to one party, according to The Guardian.

What it means for when you will hear a result

The first polls close at 18:00 EST in Kentucky and Indiana, the BBC reported. Those races are in places considered safe for Republicans, so they say little about the national picture. Another early reading comes from the Voter Poll, a new survey run by SSRS for ABC News that replaces the traditional exit poll. ABC said early data is embargoed until 5 p.m. ET, with some initial findings on voters' views expected by about 5:45 p.m. ET.

ABC News said it will not project a winner in any state until the last scheduled poll closing time there. If a race is not called then, the projection will use actual vote data and come as soon as that data allows.

The speed of counting also varies. Each state runs its own election, and some states, like Florida, process early and mail ballots before Election Day while others begin tabulating only on Nov. 3, according to the BBC. The Guardian added that Democrats tend to vote earlier and Republicans tend to vote more in person, so early returns can present what it called a “blue mirage” that fades as counting continues.

What each party needs

A party needs 218 seats for a House majority and 51 seats for an outright Senate majority, the BBC said. If the Senate splits 50-50, the vice president's tie-breaking vote decides control. Republicans currently hold 218 House seats, exactly the number needed, plus one independent who votes with them, according to the BBC.

In the Senate, the BBC cited independent analyst Cook Political Report in listing seven toss-up races: Alaska, Kansas, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Ohio and Texas. Six of them are held by Republicans and one by Democrats. The BBC said Democrats would need to win four of those seats, plus four others rated likely or leaning Democratic, to reach 51.

The races and poll-closing times to watch

• Ohio (19:30 EST): Republican Sen. Jon Husted is neck and neck with Democrat Sherrod Brown, and the result could hint at how the night will go, the BBC said.
• Maine (20:00 EST): Republican Sen. Susan Collins faces Democrat Troy Jackson.
• Michigan: Democrat Abdul El-Sayed, described by the BBC as a left-wing political outsider, is up against Republican Mike Rogers, a former FBI agent. If Democrats lose the seat, winning a Senate majority becomes much harder, the BBC reported.
• Texas: Democrat James Talarico would be the first Democrat to win a Senate seat in the state since 1988 if he defeats Ken Paxton, the state attorney general.
• Alaska (01:00 EST): The last battleground state to finish voting features a close race between Democrat Mary Peltola and Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan.

Why it matters: what a split Congress could change

The Guardian reported that the House is needed to pass any legislation and can open investigations or demand testimony from Trump administration officials. A Democratic Senate could also hold up nominations, including to the Supreme Court. If either chamber changes hands, the Guardian wrote, it would sharply influence Trump's agenda. Impeachment would still face a high bar: a simple House majority is enough to impeach, but the Senate needs a two-thirds majority.

Why a final answer can take a long time

The 2022 midterms show how slow the process can be. A day after the vote, on Nov. 9, the two parties were still in a tight race for control of Congress, the BBC recalled. CBS News projected on Nov. 17 that Republicans had secured the 218 seats needed in the House. Counting in a crucial Nevada Senate race took four days, and Georgia's Senate contest went to a runoff because no candidate passed 50%. That result did not come until Dec. 7.

If the key races are tight and control of Congress comes down to a seat or two, the Guardian said, the country could be in for a long week.

Around Prague, based on reporting by ABC News, The Guardian, BBC News