Estonian Intelligence: Ukraine's Deep Strikes on Russia Are Fueling Social Tension and Could Affect State Duma Elections

In a report published on Friday, Estonia's Foreign Intelligence Service said that growing social tension in Russia has forced the authorities to shift to a reactive, defensive policy. The cause: months of successful Ukrainian strikes deep inside Russian territory, targeting oil refineries, fuel storage facilities, chemical plants, shadow-fleet vessels and ports.

According to the intelligence assessment, these attacks have triggered an energy crisis in Russia that ordinary citizens are feeling on a daily basis. The authorities are trying to downplay the problem, calling it "temporary" and "short-lived," but Estonian analysts note that "the damage inflicted by Ukraine is extensive and will be felt for a long time to come."

It is precisely this public discontent that now poses a serious threat to the Kremlin and could influence Russia's State Duma elections in September. "Rising social tension in Russian society, combined with the visibly declining popularity of Putin's regime, could significantly affect the course of the Duma elections, even amid large-scale fraud and manipulation," the Estonian intelligence report states.

According to the report, in order to keep the situation under control, Putin's regime is being forced to resort to increasingly totalitarian and sweeping repressive measures.

Huge losses for zero results

The report also includes an assessment of the situation on the front line. According to Tallinn's data, Russia is losing around 1,400 soldiers a day, counting both those killed and severely wounded and taken out of action. Compared with the previous week, losses have actually increased, even though the number of combat engagements has dropped — from 270 to 262 per day.

"However, this has brought Russian forces no tangible results on the battlefield. What's more, Ukraine's determined efforts to retake territory have forced the Russian command to react and commit its reserves," the intelligence service notes.

Analysts conclude that the Russian army's ability to maneuver and respond swiftly to changing battlefield conditions is gradually diminishing, as Ukraine systematically uses short- and medium-range munitions against Russian logistics and infantry defense systems.

Around Prague, based on reporting by novinky.cz