Did a WhatsApp Channel Power Lula's Comeback in Brazil? Allies and Analysts Differ

A WhatsApp channel called Lula's Army is being credited by allies of Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva with helping him pull off one of the most unlikely comebacks in recent Brazilian politics, the BBC reported. Political scientists say the real picture is more complicated.

Lula, a left-wing leader, had been trailing right-wing challenger Flávio Bolsonaro before turning the race around in just three weeks, according to the BBC.

What Lula's allies say about the channel

The channel grew quickly between the two rounds of voting and reached 10.8 million followers. Led by Congressman André Janones, it urged supporters to share videos, push hashtags and recruit new voters. Its messages often came with ready-made templates that supporters could pass to friends and family, each giving followers a specific task meant to raise Lula's profile online. Janones often addressed followers as his troops and pressed them with urgent, drill-sergeant-style calls to boost the latest campaign video or help a new hashtag take off.

For years, conservatives aligned with former President Jair Bolsonaro were widely seen as dominating online political mobilization, especially on WhatsApp and Telegram. Social media has been central to Brazilian politics since Jair Bolsonaro's 2018 election victory. The channel's rapid growth between the two rounds stood out because it appeared to reverse that long-standing imbalance, and it convinced many of Lula's supporters that the left had finally found a way to compete in that arena.

On the eve of the election, Janones also hosted a 24-hour livestream while polls still pointed to a Bolsonaro win. Some members of the Workers' Party had worried that his combative style online could undercut the moderate image they wanted for Lula. In his victory speech, Lula called Janones “our General,” and thanked him for lifting the morale of supporters every day.

What political scientists say

Experts told the BBC that the impact of online campaigns is notoriously hard to measure. They said it is impossible to know how many votes, if any, the WhatsApp operation changed.

Political scientist Denilde Holzhacker argues that a change in Lula's campaign strategy was the key. In her view, the candidate linked digital campaigning with grassroots work on the ground, intensified local efforts and adjusted his message to tie a Bolsonaro victory to fears over social programs and lost rights. She also said Flávio Bolsonaro entered the run-off overconfident and did not get his message across to supporters as well.

Mayra Goulart, a sociologist and political scientist at the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, also warned against crediting social media alone. She described a combination of online activity and street-level mobilization that helped reduce abstention and persuade undecided voters. She said the effort turned online enthusiasm into real-world engagement and could be useful to Lula's next administration.

What's at stake for Lula's next government

Lula himself suggested the mobilization could shape how he governs. In his victory speech, he said the election had taught him many lessons and promised to change how Brazil is run, giving people a greater say in decision-making.

He also said digital communication would play a much bigger role in his government, a sign that the tactics seen in the campaign may carry over into how his administration talks to voters.

Around Prague, based on reporting by BBC News