Israel's Election Puts Arab Parties at the Center of a Coalition Standoff

Arab-led parties appear to have won a record number of seats in Israel's parliament, putting them at the center of a coalition fight that neither major bloc has yet been able to settle. Exit polls and partial counts from Tuesday's vote show Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc ahead of opposition leader Gadi Eisenkot's alliance, but short of a majority in the 120-seat Knesset.

Both leaders have said they will not partner with the Arab parties, according to NPR and Al Jazeera. Whether that holds will help decide who governs, or whether Israelis return to the polls.

Where the count stands

Reports differ slightly because the tallies are partial. Al Jazeera said projections gave Netanyahu's bloc 54 seats and the Eisenkot-led alliance 49. The Independent, citing nearly 92 percent of ballots counted, put the figures at 53 and 48. A majority requires 61 seats.

Arab-led parties were projected to win 17 seats combined, according to Al Jazeera, which named the Joint List and Ra'am. The Independent reported a figure of 19, which it described as unprecedented, and tied it to high turnout among motivated voters. Around half a million absentee ballots from military personnel and diplomats are still to be counted, so the numbers could shift.

Could the opposition and Arab parties work together?

On paper, the math points that way. Al Jazeera, citing The Times of Israel, said a partnership between Eisenkot's alliance and the Arab parties would reach 66 seats under the latest partial results.

Former Israeli diplomat Alon Pinkas told NPR that Eisenkot could either build a formal coalition or run a minority government backed from outside by the Arab parties, who would support major legislation and confidence votes without joining the cabinet. He called the opposition's refusal “myopic and reckless.” He argued that concerns about Israel's Jewish identity would apply equally to ultra-Orthodox parties, which he said describe themselves as non-Zionist.

Others see steep obstacles. Analysts quoted by Al Jazeera said Eisenkot would have to bring along prospective partners such as Naftali Bennett and Avigdor Liberman, and would face resistance from parts of Israeli society that do not want a government that depends on Arab votes. Eisenkot has said he would consider any party that recognizes Israel as a Jewish and democratic state, backs the values of its Declaration of Independence and commits all Israelis to national service, according to The Times of Israel. The Independent reported that he also named recognition of Hamas as an extremist group. He has not said whether Ra'am would meet those conditions.

Netanyahu has rejected the idea outright. The Independent said he warned against a dangerous government and dismissed cooperation with the Arab parties as treasonous. Arab citizens make up about a fifth of Israel's population, the newspaper reported.

Is there precedent?

Yes. In 2021, Ra'am joined the coalition that removed Netanyahu from office, the first time an Arab party was part of an Israeli government, according to The Independent. That government fell apart, and Netanyahu returned about 18 months later.

Joint List leaders said Wednesday that they are ready to help bring down Netanyahu's government, according to Israeli media reports cited by Al Jazeera. It was not clear that they would formally join a coalition. Ra'am leader Mansour Abbas has shown willingness to join an Eisenkot-led government if the Arab party handles internal security, one analyst told Al Jazeera.

Why it matters

The outcome decides who leads Israel's next government and whether Arab citizens, the Palestinian citizens of Israel who back these parties, gain a formal role in national decision-making. Pinkas linked the surge in Arab support to rising crime and murder rates in Arab communities and said the government had ignored them, a claim he made in the NPR interview.

If neither bloc can assemble a coalition, the existing cabinet remains in place until another election is called, The Independent reported. Turnout reached nearly 78 percent, the highest since 1999, and the European Union praised what it called Israel's “vibrant democracy.”

What happens next

President Isaac Herzog said he expects official results next week and will then consult each Knesset faction on forming a government. He urged parties to do everything possible to avoid a repeat election next year.

Around Prague, based on reporting by NPR, Al Jazeera, The Independent