Israel Vote Leaves Netanyahu Bloc Short of a Majority as Arab Parties Gain

Israel's election has produced no clear winner so far. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud looks to be the largest single party, but his bloc appears to be just short of the 61 seats needed for a majority in the 120-seat parliament, the BBC reported on Wednesday.

That could leave Arab-led parties in a pivotal position, even though almost every Jewish opposition party has said it will not work with them. Final results are not expected for another day or two.

Where the count stands

According to the BBC, turnout topped 77%. Al Jazeera put it at 77.7%, the highest since 1999. Netanyahu has done better than many forecasts had predicted, though analysts warn the picture could change because the early count leaned toward areas with strong right-wing support.

A large number of absentee ballots, mostly cast by soldiers, have not yet been counted. Overnight, both Netanyahu and his main rival, former army chief Gadi Eisenkot, told supporters they would form the next government. Netanyahu stopped short of declaring victory.

Why Arab parties could matter

Partial results suggest Arab-led parties have matched or improved on their previous record number of seats, the BBC said. Arab citizens, who often identify as Palestinian citizens of Israel and make up one-fifth of the population, appeared to turn out in unprecedented numbers.

Eisenkot would struggle to command a majority without those parties, according to the BBC. He has ruled out working with any of them, citing a lack of shared values. Avigdor Lieberman, a right-wing opposition figure, said during the campaign that he would not sit in a minority government that relied on their support.

Mansour Abbas, head of the United Arab List, told the BBC he wants to join the next government and expects potential partners to be more open after the vote. He noted that politicians often say one thing before an election and another afterward.

Accusations over the campaign's final day

Al Jazeera reported that Arab politicians accused Netanyahu of stirring up hatred against Palestinian citizens to scare right-wing voters to the polls. In posts on X on Tuesday, Netanyahu described Arab voters as supporters of the Muslim Brotherhood and accused them of trying to steal the election. He also urged right-wing Israelis to vote for Likud, calling the contest a matter of life and death.

Joint List leader Yousef Jabareen said Netanyahu knew Arab voters could end his rule. Abbas called the comments a scare tactic. Adalah, a legal rights group for Arab citizens, said it had received numerous reports of attempts to discourage Arab voters, slow-moving queues in Arab-majority towns and a shortage of Arabic-language ballot slips. It said it had reported these to Israel's election committees.

What this means for Israelis and the region

The vote is less likely to settle Israel's direction quickly than to start a stretch of negotiation. The BBC described a society deeply divided over Netanyahu, who faces a corruption trial on charges he denies, and over whether the country should be more firmly anchored in liberal and secular values.

Both camps are expected to try to lure defectors or explore a minority government. Veteran journalist Yaakov Katz told the BBC the process might not work and could take weeks or months. For Israelis, that means the country may stay without a settled government for some time, after four years in which a hardline religious and nationalist agenda shaped policy.

The BBC also noted that voting patterns have barely shifted since the Hamas-led attacks of Oct. 7, 2023, which set off wars in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran. Pollster Tamar Hermann of the Israeli Democracy Institute said the relative weight of pro- and anti-Netanyahu voters has stayed about the same.

What happens next

Final results will go to Israel's largely ceremonial president, Isaac Herzog, next week. He is then expected to consult the leaders of the elected parties. Larger parties typically try to win over smaller ones with promises of cabinet posts, budgets or specific policies. A key question, the BBC said, is whether the opposition bloc is ready to break a taboo and seek a deal with Arab parties.

Around Prague, based on reporting by BBC News, Al Jazeera, The Guardian