Israel Votes Tuesday: Why the Winner May Not Be Known for Weeks

Israelis vote Tuesday in a closely contested parliamentary election that many describe as the most consequential in the country's history. Polls show Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu trailing former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, according to NPR, but it may take weeks or months before it is clear who will form the next government.

It is the first national vote since the Hamas-led attack of Oct. 7, 2023, and the wars and regional fighting that followed. Here are the main questions voters and observers are asking.

How does the vote actually decide who governs?

Voters do not choose between Netanyahu and Eisenkot directly. They choose among about a dozen main parties competing for the 120 seats in the Knesset, Israel's parliament, NPR reported.

The decisive phase starts after election day, when party leaders try to assemble a coalition of at least 61 lawmakers. A party does not have to finish first for its leader to become prime minister; what counts is who can win a majority in parliament.

Who are the main candidates?

Netanyahu, Israel's longest-serving prime minister, is seeking another term after leading what both NPR and Al Jazeera describe as the most right-wing governing coalition in the country's history. It has included far-right figures Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich as well as ultra-Orthodox parties. NPR reported that he is campaigning on Israel's military achievements, his relationship with President Trump, who recently endorsed him, and on confronting Iran.

Eisenkot leads a new center-right party called Yashar and is running for prime minister for the first time. His son Gal, an Israeli soldier, was killed in Gaza during the war. NPR said recent polls give him the strongest chance of replacing Netanyahu, though no party or bloc appears sure to win a majority. Eisenkot has pledged not to join a government led by Netanyahu.

What issues have dominated the campaign?

NPR and Al Jazeera point to several themes:

• Accountability for Oct. 7. About 1,200 people were killed and 251 were taken hostage in the 2023 attack. Netanyahu has resisted calls for a state commission of inquiry into the failures that preceded it, while Eisenkot and other opposition leaders say they would set one up soon after taking office.
• Military service. The military says it needs more personnel, which has sharpened a long-running dispute over exemptions for ultra-Orthodox men. Netanyahu relies on ultra-Orthodox parties and has resisted enlisting them; Eisenkot wants to widen service.
• The courts. Before the 2023 attack, Netanyahu's government pursued a judicial overhaul that would have weakened the supreme court and given the coalition more influence over judicial appointments. His far-right partners want to renew that push, while Eisenkot backs an independent and powerful judiciary. Netanyahu is on trial for corruption and says the charges are politically motivated.

Could Arab parties decide the outcome?

Possibly. Two predominantly Arab parties are running, including the United Arab List, or Ra'am, which in 2021 became the first Arab Islamist party to join an Israeli governing coalition. NPR reported that it is willing to work with predominantly Jewish parties in exchange for action on crime, housing and infrastructure. Arab citizens make up about 20 percent of Israel's population.

But nearly all the main Jewish parties, Eisenkot's included, are reluctant to depend on Arab parties. That reluctance could leave the anti-Netanyahu camp short of the 61 seats it needs, NPR said.

What could happen after the votes are counted?

Most recent polls suggest neither Netanyahu nor Eisenkot has a clear path to a majority, according to NPR. Among the possible outcomes it described: Eisenkot's allies could break their campaign promises and form a minority government that relies on Arab parties as members or from outside the coalition. Or Netanyahu and Eisenkot could form a broad unity government, although Eisenkot has publicly ruled out serving under Netanyahu.

Why does it matter beyond the ballot?

For Israelis, the result could shape how the state handles the questions of accountability, military service and the courts. NPR reported that the wars and Israel's policies in the occupied West Bank have strained relations with many governments, and that public support for Israel in the U.S. has fallen, which worries many Israeli voters. Netanyahu argues that military strength has improved Israel's strategic position, while Eisenkot and his allies say continued isolation threatens the economy, diplomacy and security.

Al Jazeera's analysis offers a more cautious view of how much would change. Ahron Bregman, a senior teaching fellow at King's College London, told the outlet that an opposition win would mainly change the atmosphere, saying a new prime minister would likely calm things down. He also said any new government would reflect Israel's sharp turn to the right since Oct. 7. Al Jazeera reported that expectations are low among Palestinians that the vote will improve their lives, citing continuing deadly attacks in Gaza despite a ceasefire and intensified settler violence and army raids in the West Bank.

Al Jazeera also noted that Netanyahu is wanted by the International Criminal Court on war crimes charges related to Gaza. It said he denies the bribery, fraud and breach of trust charges in his corruption trial.

Around Prague, based on reporting by Al Jazeera, NPR