Lake Balaton could split into three parts by the end of the century

Hungarian scientists have warned that Lake Balaton could break up into three separate bodies of water in the second half of the 21st century. This could happen if the climate scenario turns out to be unfavourable and no water is added to the lake artificially. Hydrological engineer Bence Fülöp presented the findings at an October conference on the future of Balaton.

Using climate and hydrological models, the researchers calculated how water levels might change over the course of the century. Everything depends on the volume of greenhouse gas emissions and on whether the lake is replenished from outside. In the worst case, the continuous expanse of water would shrink noticeably, and if levels fell dramatically, the deep areas could survive only in three isolated parts. Balaton’s familiar appearance would change beyond recognition.

Water levels are already falling

The warning comes against a backdrop of unusually low water. Between mid-June and 27 August, the level at the gauge station on the edge of the lake dropped by 34 centimetres: from 77 to 43 cm. In early October it fell to 29 cm, coming close to the historical low of October 2003, when the gauge showed 23 cm. By early November the situation had improved only slightly, to around 32 cm.

Why there is less water

The causes were examined by the Hungarian specialist portal Másfélfok. According to climatologist Péter Szabó, the balance between water inflow and water loss is being disrupted. In the past, the winter surplus of moisture would usually make up for the summer deficit; now that no longer happens. Because of rising temperatures, more water evaporates from the water surface, the soil and plants, and the summer deficit is deepening faster than the surplus in the colder half of the year is growing.

According to the analysis, the climatic water balance of the Balaton basin has been negative in 16 of the 26 years since 2000. Several dry years in a row can lower the level sharply. The lake is especially vulnerable because it is shallow and covers a large area.

Can the lake be saved?

In the authors’ view, one way to halt the decline in water levels is to add water artificially from neighbouring basins, for example from the Rába, the Danube, the Mura or the Drava. However, this would require technically complex infrastructure, and the measures themselves could have negative environmental consequences.

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Around Prague, based on reporting by novinky.cz