What Lula's Last-Minute Promises Could Mean for Brazilians Before Sunday's Runoff
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Brazilians choose a president on Sunday in a runoff that many polls place within the margin of error. Since finishing behind Sen. Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round on Oct. 4, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has rolled out a series of measures that touch workweeks, welfare payments, fuel prices and debt, according to ABC News. Delivering on them would be costly for the country.
Lula, 80, is seeking a fourth nonconsecutive term. Bolsonaro, 45, is the son of jailed former President Jair Bolsonaro and a close ally of U.S. President Donald Trump, NPR reported. He currently leads in polls, though some surveys show the gap narrowing.
What it means for workers and families
Congress approved legislation 10 days before the runoff that would cut Brazil’s workweek from six days to five and weekly hours from 44 to 40 without reducing pay, ABC News reported. Bolsonaro endorsed the measure late in the campaign. Many business leaders say shorter hours without matching productivity gains raise labor costs, hurt small businesses and could fuel inflation and informal employment.
A 15% increase in payments under Bolsa Família, the main welfare program, took effect this week. Lula announced the increase in September. The program bases benefits on family size and the number of children, and the increase will reach nearly 50 million people. The government says it will cost 5.8 billion reais ($1.2 billion) for the rest of the year. Critics call permanent government-funded income transfers a classic populist tool for winning loyalty.
What it means for small businesses, borrowers and drivers
On Wednesday, Lula endorsed credit relief and tax incentives for small businesses, including low-interest loans from public banks and the chance to renegotiate some debt. The government estimates the program will cost 3 billion reais ($600 million) over three years.
He also introduced a national debt refinancing program meant to clear default records for millions of low-income Brazilians. Opposition analysts and market commentators describe state-backed debt forgiveness and subsidized renegotiation as short-term relief that does not address gaps in financial literacy.
To lower fuel costs, Lula signed a decree removing federal taxes on the import and sale of gasoline for 30 days, with the option to extend. The government also extended tax exemptions and expanded support for ethanol so biofuels stay competitive at the pump. Officials estimate these measures at 5.2 billion reais ($1 billion).
Lula is also sending Congress a bill for zero-fare public transportation on weekends. Experts say the cost depends on the model chosen and ranges from 5 billion to 16 billion reais ($1 billion to $3.2 billion).
Why it matters: a close race with big stakes
A Bolsonaro victory would extend his family’s influence over the Brazilian right and, according to NPR, reinforce a broader rightward shift in Latin America. ABC News said a defeat for Lula would also boost Trump’s influence in the region.
The younger Bolsonaro has pledged to pardon his father, who is under house arrest while serving a sentence for plotting to overturn the 2022 election result, which Lula narrowly won. His other proposals include trimming the size of the Brazilian state to boost economic growth and a crackdown on organized crime. In the first televised debate last Sunday, Lula asked whether Bolsonaro would keep calling Argentina’s Javier Milei his model. Bolsonaro promised to give streets back to voters so they can walk in safety. Crime ranks among Brazilians’ top election issues, NPR reported.
Both candidates have drawn tens of thousands of people to rallies in major cities. Outside Meta’s São Paulo offices, protesters have objected to the handling of political content; Lula’s campaign accuses the company of unfairly restricting his posts, which Meta denies. A survey released Wednesday found that 10% of voters could still change their minds, leaving room for a late surprise.
