US and Israel Reportedly Plan Short, Intense Iran Strike Campaign After Midterms

The U.S. and Israeli militaries have developed detailed plans for renewed strikes on Iran after the U.S. midterm elections on Nov. 3, The New York Times reported Wednesday, citing American officials and others briefed on the discussions. The plans center on a "short but intensive" campaign, and no final decision has been made.

According to the report, as relayed by Anadolu Agency, the Jerusalem Post and Ynetnews, President Donald Trump has not approved a new operation. Diplomatic efforts with Tehran are continuing, and the Times noted he has repeatedly rejected plans to return to major combat this year.

What the reported plans include

The Jerusalem Post, summarizing the Times, said the operation could last about three days. Likely targets include Iran's nuclear facilities, energy infrastructure, and missile and drone arsenal. Anadolu said the nuclear portion could include a strike on Pickaxe Mountain, a deeply buried site.

Ynetnews reported that, according to the Times, some U.S. officials believe an intensive three-day offensive could do enough economic damage to change Iran's position. Iranian officials, for their part, have threatened to hit data centers and undersea communications cables if attacked again, and warned that a confrontation would not be short.

Signs of preparation in the region

The Times reported that the two militaries have stepped up exercises, including flights over Iraq to rehearse strike maneuvers. U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth discussed possible new strikes with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu during a visit to Israel this week.

Axios, citing Israeli and American officials, reported that dozens of Israeli fighter jets flew a sortie Monday toward Iran's border, about 1,300 kilometers (800 miles) from Israel. The same day, Hegseth met Netanyahu at Ovda Air Base. The aircraft passed through Syrian and Iraqi airspace and turned back near the border. Officials told Axios the exercise was not unusual and meant to deter Iran, but acknowledged it could have led to a miscalculation and reignited the war. Several American sources told Axios they believed Israel hoped Iran would fire on the aircraft, giving a justification for strikes. Israel had told the U.S. in advance, according to the report.

NBC News reported that the U.S. military has quietly reduced its troop presence at bases across the Middle East in recent days, including in Jordan, Qatar and Kuwait. It also said the State Department ordered further staffing cuts at several diplomatic posts. Sources said the moves resembled those made around the start of the war in February. Separately, U.S. officials told Reuters the State Department planned to evacuate some diplomatic personnel and their families from Saudi Arabia, citing concern about renewed fighting, particularly involving the Houthis in Yemen.

Conflicting accounts of an earlier planned attack

The Financial Times reported that Israel's military prepared for a multi-day bombing campaign around the weekend of Oct. 10, but that Trump blocked it because he opposed resuming hostilities before the midterms. The Jerusalem Post, citing IDF sources, disputed that account. It said the military was not planning to strike Iran on Oct. 10 and had received no order to prepare an attack. Those sources speculated the FT story was a leak meant to influence the Israeli election. The two accounts have not been reconciled.

Trump said Oct. 8 that the U.S. would not attack Iran before the midterms, citing productive talks. A White House official told the Times the administration does not comment on military plans "that may or may not exist," and that Trump is keeping all options open to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons.

Why it matters beyond the battlefield

The U.S. and Israel launched the war against Iran on Feb. 28. Iran responded with missile and drone attacks in the region and effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for global energy supplies. That context is why the reported plans include energy infrastructure and why navigation in the strait remains a sticking point in talks.

For Americans in the region, the reported troop reductions and planned evacuation from Saudi Arabia point to heightened concern about the safety of U.S. personnel. Iran's threat against data centers and undersea cables suggests a renewed conflict could reach civilian communications networks, though no such strikes have been reported.

The stalled diplomacy

A memorandum of understanding signed in June, after Pakistani and Qatari mediation, has stalled amid disagreements. The Lebanese newspaper Al-Akhbar, in a report based on leaks and unofficial information, said Pakistan's army chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, carried a U.S. warning to Tehran: make nuclear concessions or face a large-scale attack. It said the sides disagree on sequencing. Washington wants nuclear progress first, while Iran wants an end to the war and the blockade and a reopening of the strait. The paper also said Iranian security official Mohsen Rezaei told Munir that enriched nuclear material would stay in Iran.

What happens next

The midterm elections are Nov. 3. Reports differ on what the preparations signal. According to the Jerusalem Post's summary, some officials believe strikes could come within weeks, while others see the buildup as pressure on Tehran during negotiations. No public decision on resuming strikes has been announced.

Around Prague, based on reporting by Anadolu Ajansı, The Jerusalem Post, Ynetnews