What SpaceX's Q3 Earnings Mean for Investors Watching the Stock

SpaceX reports third-quarter results after the market closes Tuesday, Oct. 20. Analysts expect revenue to jump to roughly $13 billion from $7.8 billion in the second quarter, driven mainly by its artificial intelligence business, according to TradingView and CoinCodex.

Options pricing suggests traders expect the stock, which trades under the ticker SPCX, to move by about 7.5% in either direction, CoinCodex reported.

What this means for people who own or follow SpaceX shares

The report is the company's second since it began trading on June 12, and the stock has swung widely since then. The results will show whether the AI business is bringing in enough revenue to justify its costs. CoinCodex said investors want evidence that AI can cover more of its own expenses instead of leaning on cash flow from Starlink.

Stronger-than-expected revenue could support the share price, CoinCodex noted, while rising AI costs or weaker earnings could push it sharply lower. Analyst estimates differ slightly. TradingView cited a consensus of $13 billion, CoinCodex cited about $12.84 billion, and Pivotal Research forecast $13.2 billion.

Profit and revenue expectations

According to TradingView, the consensus estimate for earnings is $0.13 per share. That would be a return to profit after a loss of $0.09 per share in the second quarter. Pivotal Research is more optimistic, forecasting $0.21 per share.

TradingView said the growth comes largely from SpaceX's AI initiatives and its business of renting out computing power. That business is lucrative but expensive to run.

Segment estimates to watch

TradingView reported second-quarter figures and Visible Alpha-based estimates for the third quarter:

• Connectivity: the largest segment at $4.29 billion in the second quarter, expected to rise to $4.92 billion.
• AI: $2.56 billion in the second quarter, expected to reach $6.47 billion. Anthropic is projected to contribute $3.75 billion, and AI solutions plus Cursor Enterprise $1.37 billion.
• Space: the smallest segment at $962 million, projected to grow to $1.46 billion.
• Backlog: $47.5 billion at the end of the second quarter. TradingView said recent commercial and government contract wins could expand it.

Where the stock stands

Opening Bell Daily reported that SpaceX closed Monday at $147.96. That is 26.7% below its closing high of $201.80 on June 16 and 8.1% below its first-day close of $160.95. It is 36.7% above its closing low of $108.27 on Aug. 5, the day after the company reported second-quarter results.

CoinCodex said the stock rose 1.3% on Monday but slipped to $146.39 in pre-market trading Tuesday, down 1.05%. It added that the shares remain below a post-listing high of more than $225. That figure differs from Opening Bell Daily's closing high, and the sources do not explain the gap.

The spending question

CoinCodex reported that Deutsche Bank analyst Edison Yu estimates AI revenue nearly tripled to around $6 billion. He also said customers of the computing services could add about $54.5 billion to annualized revenue at current business levels.

The costs are large. Yu estimated SpaceX may have spent about $19 billion on capital expenditures in the previous quarter, with AI computing infrastructure making up much of it. CoinCodex also reported that the company is looking to borrow $40 billion to buy Nvidia chips for its data centers. The outlet cited one analyst's estimate of a $336 million capital need in 2027, though that figure looks small next to the other spending numbers.

How Wall Street is positioned

TradingView listed a range of analyst views ahead of the report:

• Evercore ISI maintained an Outperform rating and raised its price target to $275 from $230.
• Morgan Stanley kept an Overweight rating and a $300 target, calling the third quarter an “appetizer” compared with longer-term catalysts.
• Susquehanna kept a Neutral rating and raised its target to $173 from $144.
• Goldman Sachs updated its estimates to weigh heavy AI computing build-outs against near-term free cash flow pressure.

Opening Bell Daily framed the report as a test of whether the summer selloff went too far. The company's results will be released after the close, so any market reaction would come in later trading.

Sources: TradingView, Opening Bell Daily, CoinCodex