Brazil's Runoff in Numbers: Tied Polls, Record Abstention and a Lula-Bolsonaro Rematch

Brazil holds a presidential runoff on Sunday between incumbent Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Sen. Flavio Bolsonaro, with polls showing a statistical tie and a large group of voters who skipped the first round, according to Al Jazeera and Euronews. Both candidates held final rallies on Saturday, a day after a televised debate.

The result could decide whether Brazil stays among the few left-led governments in the region or joins right-wing governments friendly with President Donald Trump, Euronews reported.

The numbers behind the race

• 47% to 45%: Bolsonaro's first-round lead over Lula on Oct. 4. About 2.2 million ballots separated them, out of more than 158.7 million registered voters, Al Jazeera reported.
• 50.5% to 49.5%: The latest Quaest poll, published Wednesday, put Bolsonaro narrowly ahead, well within the margin of error.
• 52% and 47%: Shares of Quaest respondents who said they would never vote for Bolsonaro and Lula, respectively. The pollster noted that Lula's rejection rate had fallen six points in a week.
• 33.4 million: Brazilian adults who did not vote in the first round, a 21 percent abstention rate, the highest for a general election since 1998, according to Al Jazeera.
• 27 years: The prison sentence of former President Jair Bolsonaro, Flavio's father, for a coup plot.

Who the abstainers are

Voting is compulsory for most Brazilian adults, yet the group staying home is large. Al Jazeera spoke with a 30-year-old voter in Sao Paulo state who said she is abstaining as a protest and that the choice reflects a lack of a qualified candidate, not apathy.

Experts told the outlet the group is varied. Political scientist Mayra Goulart said those who actively reject both candidates may be only a minority, and that many people simply lack the time or resources to engage with politics. Political science professor Luciana Veiga said abstention often reflects practical obstacles, such as moving cities without transferring voter registration, work or family care duties, or living far from a polling station. Voting is also optional for 16- and 17-year-olds, people aged 70 or older and those who cannot read or write, which Veiga said covers around 21 million people.

The penalty for not voting is usually small. Al Jazeera reported that an unjustified absence brings a fine of up to 3.51 Brazilian reais, less than a dollar, and registrations can be canceled after three missed elections in a row. Until the fines are paid, people cannot get or renew passports and other ID documents or join the selection process for civil service jobs.

The candidates and their closing pitches

Lula, 80, is seeking an unprecedented fourth, non-consecutive term. Euronews said his approval has at times fallen as low as 24% this term amid concerns about crime and the cost of living. Bolsonaro, a former lawyer who began his political career at 21, has kept much of his father's conservative agenda while trying to soften his tone for centrist voters.

In Friday's final debate, the two struck a calmer tone than in their first showdown, Euronews reported. Lula criticized his rival's lack of experience, while Bolsonaro accused the president of leaving behind a broken country and asked why things are so expensive.

Bolsonaro has promised new tax breaks, tougher security policies, 500,000 more prison spots and cuts to government spending, according to the two outlets. Lula has made reducing abstention a central part of his runoff push, Al Jazeera reported. Euronews added that Bolsonaro admitted accepting millions of dollars from banker Daniel Vorcaro to produce a film on his father's life and is under investigation in connection with the case.

Why it matters beyond Brazil

Euronews said Brazil plays a vital role in limiting global warming by protecting the Amazon. Deforestation hit a record high under Jair Bolsonaro, and his son has denied human-caused climate change, committing only to stopping illegal deforestation. New clearing reached a record low in recent years under Lula's government, which expanded satellite monitoring and targeted law enforcement.

The vote also bears on relations with Washington. Euronews reported that Trump announced 50% tariffs on Brazilian goods last year, citing among other reasons the trial of Jair Bolsonaro, and imposed a new round of tariffs this year. Trump also designated Brazil's biggest drug-trafficking groups as foreign terrorist organizations after receiving Flavio Bolsonaro at the White House, a move Lula's government opposed. Lula has warned the United States not to meddle in the election.

Around Prague, based on reporting by Al Jazeera, Euronews