Europe's Ukraine Force Rehearses Deployment in Poland: The Numbers Behind Koalicja

Britain and France will lead a military exercise in Poland this month to test whether a multinational force could deploy to Ukraine if a peace deal is reached, according to the BBC and The Associated Press, as carried by ABC News. The drill, called Exercise Koalicja, is the first for the force, and the sources describe it as both a practical test and a political signal that European countries are stepping up militarily.

The deployment itself is hypothetical. All of the European countries involved say they would send troops only after fighting stops, and peace talks have stalled, so the exercise is a rehearsal for an outcome that is not yet in sight.

The exercise by the numbers

• 2,800 personnel: That is how many military personnel will take part across land, sea and air, the BBC reported, and the AP gave the same figure for soldiers. The BBC's opening line rounds it to nearly 3,000.
• Nov. 9-22: The BBC reported that the exercise will run on those dates, and that it will rehearse how to move, protect and supply a force in Ukraine, as well as test command and control so troops from different countries can work together.
• 300 troops and two Typhoons: This is the British contribution, according to the BBC, with the RAF jets simulating how a force could reassure commercial aircraft once Ukraine's skies can be reopened.
• 12 nations: The BBC said troops from 12 European nations will take part. It listed Belgium, Estonia, Germany, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Poland, Spain, Sweden and Turkey alongside Britain and France. The AP wrote that eight other nations will join Britain and France, so the reports differ on the exact count.
• 37 nations: Britain and France belong to a wider political group of 37 countries supporting Ukraine, known as the Coalition of the Willing, according to the AP.

What the force is meant to do

Western officials told the BBC the force would not take part in offensive operations, peacekeeping or ceasefire monitoring. It would not operate under NATO command or on the front line. Lt. Gen. Tom Bateman, the British commander of Multinational Force-Ukraine, said that if deployed after a ceasefire, it would help rebuild Ukraine's armed forces, provide the reassurance needed to open the country's skies and help clear mines in the Black Sea, the AP reported. Turkey has agreed to lead the maritime mission, the BBC said, with the eventual goal of allowing trade to resume in the Black Sea.

British Defense Secretary Wes Streeting said the exercise showed Britain, France and their allies are preparing for the day peace comes to Ukraine. He said, according to the BBC: “This is not a hypothetical plan, it's a real force.”

Why it matters: security guarantees for any peace deal

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has repeatedly said that any peace deal must include strong security guarantees from Western allies, including the United States, to deter Russia from attacking again, the AP reported. This force is one of the proposals meant to provide part of that assurance. The U.S. has been involved in discussions but is not contributing troops, according to the BBC.

Russia has opposed foreign troops in Ukraine. The BBC and AP both noted that President Vladimir Putin said last year that such troops would be “legitimate targets.” Western officials have declined to spell out the rules of engagement if foreign troops were attacked, though they say the force could defend itself, the BBC said.

The open questions

Several challenges stand between the rehearsal and a real deployment, according to the AP. Ceasefire negotiations have stalled. Ed Arnold, a senior associate fellow at the RUSI think tank in London, said a critical part of any agreement was a U.S. guarantee of intelligence support and help monitoring a ceasefire, and he suggested a lasting ceasefire could be a long way off. The AP also pointed to the outcome of the upcoming French elections as a factor.

The BBC reported that officials could not comment on the final makeup of a force that might go to Ukraine, and that national contributions would depend on the circumstances of a cessation of hostilities and on individual governments' political decisions. It added that military experts have suggested Western nations might need to send tens of thousands of troops to guarantee Ukraine's security. It also said it is unclear what training role Western forces could play, since Ukrainian soldiers are already in demand to train NATO forces in drone warfare.

The AP noted that some experts say the deployment may never take place. The BBC concluded that Russia has shown no sign of wanting to end its war.

Around Prague, based on reporting by BBC News, The Independent, ABC News