Polls: AfD Pulls Ahead in Berlin and Two Other German States as Chancellor Merz Stumbles

The Alternative for Germany (AfD) has, for the first time in its history, taken the lead in pre-election polling in Berlin, overtaking both Chancellor Friedrich Merz's conservative CDU and the Social Democrats (SPD), who have dominated the German capital for decades. According to a July survey, AfD now commands 19% of the vote, while the CDU and SPD each trail at 13%.

The lead is narrower than in Saxony-Anhalt, but for the ruling parties it still amounts to a genuine shock. Observers attribute AfD's rising popularity to the weakness of the governing coalition and a string of strategic missteps by Chancellor Merz.

Germany's economy is going through a rough patch, and even parts of the business community are beginning to distance themselves from the chancellor. Marie-Christine Ostermann, president of the Association of Family Businesses, sharply criticised the 2026 budget, which foresees fresh borrowing of 180 billion euros. "Germany has long been trapped in a spiral of rising debt and falling competitiveness," she said, adding that the coalition had made plenty of promises but failed to deliver for the business sector.

Dissatisfaction with the current coalition has reached a record 59% of Germans. The chancellor himself keeps alienating voters with blunt remarks. Less than two weeks into office, he told the Bundestag: "With a four-day working week and a focus on work-life balance, we will not be able to preserve this country's prosperity" — a comment that sparked a narrative about "lazy Germans."

Merz has also repeatedly stirred controversy with bold pledges on rapid deportations and stricter migration rules — a topic that dominated last year's parliamentary elections too. In March, the chancellor said he planned to send 80% of Syrian refugees back home within three years. Yet these ambitions are running into reality — not only legal obstacles, but also acute labour shortages in exactly the sectors where many Syrians work, such as logistics, elderly care and hospitality, even though only one in two working-age Syrians is currently employed. The promised tightening of welfare payments has likewise stalled.

All this, against the backdrop of a sluggish economy, has created fertile ground for AfD's rise. The party leadership is confidently predicting that Saxony-Anhalt will produce Germany's first-ever AfD state premier. Polls put the party on course for victory with around 41% of the vote, which would still require finding a coalition partner.

Analysts see the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance — Reason and Justice (BSW) as a likely partner. Despite standing at opposite ends of the political spectrum on many issues, BSW and AfD share some common ground: similar views on migration, along with support for limiting arms deliveries to Ukraine and holding talks with Russia. It remains unclear whether BSW will clear the five-percent threshold — polls put the party at between 4% and 4.3%.

AfD is also leading in two other states — Berlin and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania. In the latter, a July poll gives the party 35.7% of the vote, while the Social Democrats, who have traditionally won there, trail with just 28.7% — a disastrous result compared to 39.6% in the 2021 election. The CDU comes third with 9.3%. The Greens and BSW are hovering right at the five-percent threshold needed to enter parliament. Analysts predict AfD will win the election in this state but remain in opposition, as the other parties unite against it, with the SPD, the Left and the CDU forming the government instead.

A similar scenario is expected in Berlin: even if AfD wins, it is unlikely to secure the post of head of the city government, since the other parties traditionally join forces to keep it out of power.

Around Prague, based on reporting by novinky.cz