French poll: Le Pen would win the presidential runoff against anyone

According to a new poll published by the newspaper Le Parisien, Marine Le Pen would win France’s presidential election in the second round against any rival. In the first round, 33–35% of voters say they are ready to back her.

Among the other candidates, the leftist politician Jean-Luc Mélenchon leads with 17–19% of the vote. He is followed by former prime minister Édouard Philippe (13–16%) and member of the European Parliament Raphaël Glucksmann (12–14%). Glucksmann still trails Philippe, but has recently gained between one and four points, while Philippe has lost about one point. Gabriel Attal is well behind, credited with 5 to 11%.

In a runoff against Mélenchon, Le Pen would win about 70% of the vote. Mélenchon would draw the fewest votes from his rivals’ supporters: only 6% of those who backed Philippe in the first round would vote for the left-wing candidate. Meanwhile, 23% of Glucksmann’s supporters would prefer Le Pen.

Le Pen would also win if Philippe (57% to 43%) or Glucksmann (59% to 41%) reached the runoff, even though they would get there with stronger first-round results.

The poll was conducted from Oct. 19 to 21 and reflects the situation after last weekend, when protests against the cost of living in France turned into violence and looting. A total of 2,094 respondents were surveyed. The election will take place next spring.

Around Prague, based on reporting by novinky.cz