How Michigan and Alaska Surprises Could Decide Which Party Controls the Senate

Two late controversies, one in Michigan and one in Alaska, have shaken up the fight for the Senate and could help decide which party holds the majority, according to an NBC News analysis. If the Alaska race is close, the outcome may not be known for weeks, potentially pushing the question of Senate control into December.

Republicans currently hold the chamber, and Democrats need several pickups in states that are hard for them. Here is how the two states fit into the map.

Why do Michigan and Alaska matter so much?

NBC News laid out two scenarios. In the first, which it called a “red wall” outcome, Democrats have a good night: they hold every seat they are defending, including Michigan, flip North Carolina and finally unseat Republican Sen. Susan Collins in Maine. That would leave them with 49 seats.

To go further, they would need to win in states that President Donald Trump carried by double digits in 2024: Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Ohio and Texas. NBC noted a plausible case in which Democratic candidates run 10 points better than the 2024 presidential margin in all five of those states and still lose every one.

In the second scenario, a “blue tsunami,” Michigan and Maine go to Democrats and all five of those red states fall one by one, driven by weak Republican turnout, swing-voter movement and high Democratic enthusiasm. That would produce a 54-46 Senate majority, and 55 seats if South Carolina flipped as well.

What happened in Michigan?

Haley Stevens, who finished second in the Democratic primary, broke with her party and endorsed Republican Mike Rogers two days before the election, NBC News reported. Democrats were already uneasy about the prospects of progressive nominee Abdul El-Sayed.

The stakes are high for the party's math. If Democrats lose Michigan, their path to a majority becomes steeper: they would have to flip at least three of the double-digit Trump states instead of two.

What is the controversy in Alaska?

A New York Times report said that the campaign of Democrat Mary Peltola recruited a candidate who shares a name with Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan. The matter is under state and federal investigation, and Peltola has denied any involvement in the effort.

Over the weekend, a federal judge dismissed an attempt by the Trump administration to segregate ballots cast for Dan J. Sullivan, a retired teacher and first-time candidate, NBC News said.

Could Alaska take weeks to call?

Yes, if the race is tight. Alaska law allows up to 15 days for absentee ballots to arrive, as long as they are postmarked by Election Day, Nov. 3. Counting can therefore continue through Nov. 18, and the target date to certify the election is Nov. 25, the day before Thanksgiving.

A very close margin could lead a candidate to demand a recount, and a court fight is possible. NBC News said such a sequence would carry the country into December without knowing which party will control the Senate.

What this means for voters watching the results

Senate control affects which party can confirm nominees and move legislation through the chamber, so the outcome carries weight well beyond the states involved. Because the majority could hinge on Alaska, a common scenario is that Election Night ends without a clear answer.

Readers following the results should expect that a close Alaska count may take until at least mid-November, and certification is not targeted until Nov. 25. Michigan, meanwhile, adds to the pressure on Democrats, since losing it would make their route to a majority harder.

Around Prague, based on reporting by NBC News