Midterm Election Night Guide: Which Races Decide Control of Congress and When Polls Close

Voters decide Tuesday whether Republicans keep their majorities in the House and Senate, in midterm elections that Fox News said will also shape key state governments during President Donald Trump's second term. Democrats need a net gain of four Senate seats to take control of that chamber, according to CBS News.

A forecast from Silver Bulletin showed Democrats' odds of winning both chambers at their highest levels of the cycle as of Monday morning. Forecasts are probabilities, not results, and the final tally depends on votes cast Tuesday.

What is the current balance of power in Congress?

CBS News reported that Republicans hold 53 Senate seats and Democrats hold 47. Republicans are defending 22 seats, most of them in states Trump won easily in 2024.

In the House, all 435 seats are on the ballot and 218 are needed for a majority. CBS said the chamber currently has 218 Republicans, plus an independent who caucuses with the GOP, and 214 Democrats, with two seats vacant. The network identified 42 House races likely to decide control.

Which Senate races are drawing the most attention?

Fox News and CBS News both highlighted several contests:

• Texas: Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton faces Democratic state Rep. James Talarico for the seat of outgoing Sen. John Cornyn. Fox noted Texas has not elected a Democratic senator since 1988.
• Ohio: Republican Sen. Jon Husted, appointed to Vice President JD Vance's former seat, faces former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown.
• Michigan: Former Republican Rep. Mike Rogers faces Democrat Abdul El-Sayed for the open seat of retiring Democratic Sen. Gary Peters.
• Georgia: Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff defends his seat against Republican Rep. Mike Collins.
• Iowa: Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson faces Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek for the seat Sen. Joni Ernst is leaving.
• Maine: Republican Sen. Susan Collins faces Democrat Troy Jackson in a state Kamala Harris won in 2024 by almost 7 points, CBS reported.

CBS also listed Alaska, Kansas, North Carolina and New Hampshire among its Senate races to watch. In North Carolina, former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper faces former Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Whatley. In New Hampshire, Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas faces former GOP Sen. John Sununu.

Which governor's races matter most?

Fox News pointed to several: Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, a Republican seeking a fourth term, against Democratic state Rep. Gina Hinojosa; Ohio's open race between Republican Vivek Ramaswamy and Democrat Amy Acton; Michigan's contest between Democrat Jocelyn Benson and Republican Rep. John James; and Wisconsin's open race between Republican Rep. Tom Tiffany and Democrat David Crowley.

Fox also listed Georgia, where Republican Rick Jackson faces Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms, and Iowa, where Democrat Rob Sand faces Republican Zach Lahn. In Nevada, Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo faces Democratic Attorney General Aaron Ford.

When do polls close in the key states?

Fox News gave these closing times, all Eastern:

• Georgia: 7 p.m.
• Ohio: 7:30 p.m.
• Texas, Michigan and Maine: 8 p.m. (9 p.m. in some areas of Texas and Michigan)
• Wisconsin and Iowa: 9 p.m.
• Nevada: 10 p.m.

What does this mean for voters and the country?

The outcome will determine which party controls Congress for the rest of Trump's second term, and who governs several large states. Those offices set state-level policy on issues Fox said are central in specific races, including taxes, education, housing affordability and public safety.

CBS News said Republicans are vulnerable mainly because of an unpopular war with Iran and continuing cost-of-living pressures. It also said affordability concerns and Trump's tariff policies are weighing on Iowans, and that energy prices have hit Kansas farmers hard. These are the network's assessments, and the vote will show how much they mattered.

What happens next?

Silver Bulletin said it would publish a final forecast update shortly after midnight Tuesday. Its model, which draws on 40,000 simulations, treats House, Senate and governor's races jointly. That lets it estimate the odds of split outcomes, such as Republicans holding the Senate while losing the House. The site said Democrats' recent gains came largely from strong polls from The New York Times and AtlasIntel. Results will begin arriving as polls close Tuesday evening.

Around Prague, based on reporting by Fox News, CBS News, Silver Bulletin