Trump's Russia diesel deal: Czech commentary on a blow to Europe

The deal on supplies of Russian diesel fuel to the US makes no economic sense and undermines Europe's trust in Washington, according to the author of a commentary in a Czech outlet. This is the author's point of view, not established fact.

A volume of 300,000 tonnes of diesel will not affect prices: daily diesel consumption in the US is around 480 million litres. The additional 500,000 tonnes that have been promised will not change the picture either. Besides, Russia itself is short of diesel, and its export ban is regularly extended by a month, most recently at the end of September. The problem is a lack of refining capacity, which is suffering from Ukrainian strikes. Donald Trump, the author believes, knows these strikes are painful for Moscow and has repeatedly asked Kyiv to stop them, without success.

A calculation ahead of the elections

The author explains Trump's activity by the congressional elections a month away: petrol and diesel prices in the US are high, and Americans are very sensitive to them. A Republican defeat, in his view, is almost inevitable; the only question is its scale. It would be good to have a ceasefire agreement by the elections too, in order to present himself as a peacemaker, especially after the strike on Iran failed to deliver the expected results and the oil price is not falling.

For Russia, eased sanctions will let it replenish a treasury drained by the war, and the diesel export ban, the author estimates, will not be an obstacle.

A blow to allies

In the author's opinion, the deal also hits Europe, which supports Ukraine because it understands Russia's imperial aims. After the latest US step, which shook even Prime Minister Andrej Babiš, one thing is clear: transatlantic ties, he believes, are broken. Trump's assurances that the US will honour its NATO commitments the author calls self-deception: he describes the US not as a reliable partner but rather as a “frenemy”, something between a friend and an enemy.

As an example of an authoritarian approach, the author cites Trump's reaction to Volodymyr Zelensky's displeasure at the lifting of sanctions on Russia: the American president said that Zelensky should not be president. Zelensky promised elections if a two-month ceasefire takes hold, but Russia is unlikely to agree to one. As the author notes, Russian strikes on Ukrainian power plants continued just hours after Trump's statement about an “energy truce”. Zelensky, according to him, knows nothing about it, and Moscow has not commented.

The author's conclusion: Europe will have to proceed from the assumption that Trump is not interested in its fate. He considers this realisation especially painful for Poland, which is betting on US support, and compares Europe itself to a frightened flock of hens that clucks but cannot bang its fist on the table.

Around Prague, based on reporting by novinky.cz