Midterm Poll: Democrats Hold 8-Point Edge as Trump Approval Falls to 33%

Democrats lead Republicans by 8 percentage points in the House vote among likely voters, and President Donald Trump's approval rating has dropped to its lowest point in the poll's history, according to a new ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos survey. The poll comes just over two weeks before the midterm elections.

ABC News reported that about 7 in 10 Americans also call gasoline unaffordable and say the country is on the wrong track. The poll was conducted using Ipsos' KnowledgePanel.

The key numbers in the ABC/Post/Ipsos poll

• 52% to 44%: Likely voters back the Democratic House candidate over the Republican. Among registered voters the split is 50% to 42%, also 8 points. A July Washington Post-Ipsos poll showed a 3-point gap.
• 33%: Trump's approval rating, a personal low in this poll. After the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol, 38% approved. Now 66% disapprove, a record across both of his terms.
• 52%: Share of Americans who strongly disapprove of Trump, matching the level after Jan. 6 and a high for his second term.
• 22% and 76%: Independents who approve and disapprove of Trump. ABC says both figures are records across his two terms.
• 71%: Share calling gasoline unaffordable, up from 28% in February, before the war in Iran pushed up fuel costs, according to ABC. The national average price has been above $4 a gallon for a record 158 days in 2026.
• 21% and 77%: Approval and disapproval of Trump's handling of the cost of living, his weakest issue in the survey.

What is behind the shift

Partisans are largely united. ABC reported that 98% of Democratic likely voters and 96% of Republican likely voters back their own party's candidate. The difference comes from independents, who favor Democrats 56% to 35% among likely voters.

Enthusiasm also tilts toward Democrats. Among Democratic voters, 72% say they are absolutely certain to vote, compared with 65% of Republicans. More Democrats than Republicans, 44% to 31%, are following the midterms extremely or very closely.

Trump's support has softened within his own party. According to the poll, 79% of Republicans approve of him, down from 88% near the start of his second term. Those who strongly approve fell to a record-low 39%, from 63% in February 2025. Among Republicans who do not identify as MAGA supporters, 47% disapprove. About 6 in 10 Republicans consider themselves MAGA supporters, both now and in February.

Voters who only somewhat disapprove of Trump, roughly 1 in 10, favor the Republican candidate 58% to 34%. About 9 in 10 of the roughly half of likely voters who strongly disapprove plan to vote Democratic.

What it means for households and voters

The poll suggests that money worries are driving much of the mood. Half or more of Americans call every household purchase category it measured unaffordable. Healthcare is at 65%, up from 56% in February. Home energy and utilities are at 57%, up from 45%, and rent or mortgage costs are at 50%, up from 37%. Groceries are at 60%, up from 45% in February but below 66% in July.

The sense of strain extends to discretionary spending. Some 61% call dining out unaffordable, 69% say the same of a weeklong vacation, and 80% say so of a new car.

Overall, 75% rate the economy negatively, including 35% who call it poor. About 48% say they are not as well off as when Trump became president, the highest share in either of his terms. Likely voters who rate the economy poorly favor Democrats by 72 points, and those who say they are worse off favor them by 60 points. Among registered voters, Trump's approval is somewhat higher, at 37%, with 63% disapproving.

How much the House question tells us

ABC noted that control of the House is decided in individual districts, so the national question is only a barometer. It pointed to past cycles for context. In a fall 2022 poll, registered voters were nearly split, and Republicans went on to win Congress. In fall 2018, Democrats led by 11 points among registered voters and went on to win the House.

Source: ABC News