Trump Impeachment After the 2026 Midterms: The Vote Math

Democrats have won majorities in both chambers of Congress, putting the impeachment of Donald Trump back on the table. The House can impeach with a simple majority. Only the Senate can remove a president, and that takes two-thirds, or 67 of 100 votes. Even with the 54 seats they hold now, Democrats would need at least 13 Republicans. The new Congress is sworn in on 3 January 2027.

How impeachment works

The House votes on articles of impeachment, which needs a majority of members present: 218 of 435 with a full chamber. CBS News, NBC News and CNBC project a Democratic House majority; dozens of districts are still counting. The Senate then holds a trial, and conviction requires two-thirds of senators present.

Trump has been impeached twice, in 2019 and 2021, and acquitted both times. In February 2021, 57 senators voted to convict, including seven Republicans, a record for a president’s own party, but still ten short of 67.

Votes needed to remove a president▲ 67 = two-thirds of the Senate54 Democrats13 Republicans who would have to joinother 33 seatsDemocratic seats per NBC News on the morning of 4 November; three races are still uncalled. More Democratic seats would mean fewer Republican votes needed.

The same two-thirds is needed to override a veto, in both the Senate and the House. So even with both chambers, Democrats cannot pass laws over Trump’s objection. They can, however, block his judicial and cabinet nominees in the Senate and open investigations in both chambers.

What Trump says

Trump wrote on Truth Social: "I wasn’t on the Ballot and if I was, we would have won IN A LANDSLIDE!" He told The New York Times he is "absolutely willing to accept those results" and will work with Democrats.

But on Fox News he said Democrats would send him things that are "insane" and he would veto them, predicting that after a couple of months of vetoes they would ask how to get things done. He told CBS News much the same: Democrats would want to work with him, or he would veto everything.

The records broken on election night

1988TexasJames Talarico is the first Democrat Texas has elected to the Senate since Lloyd Bentsen in 1988. Gina Hinojosa is the first Democrat elected governor since 1990.1932KansasAdam Hamilton is the first Democrat Kansas has sent to the Senate since 1932, a gap of 94 years.2006OhioSherrod Brown won the Senate seat and Amy Acton beat Vivek Ramaswamy for governor. Democrats last won both offices in Ohio in the same year in 2006.1997MaineSusan Collins, a senator since 1997, lost to Democrat Troy Jackson.

Democrats flipped seven Republican Senate seats. For the race-by-race results, see our 2026 Senate results page.

What prediction markets say

Before the election, Kalshi traders priced the chance of a Trump impeachment before 2028 at 61% to 66%, and the chance of removal from office at about 17%. The gap reflects the math: impeachment needs only a House majority, while removal needs Republican votes in the Senate.

Sources: Newsweek, RTÉ, CBS News, NBC News, Axios (Ohio), Kalshi, U.S. Senate.

By the Around Prague newsroom