What Is at Stake in the Midterm Elections on Nov. 3? Congress, Governors and Ballot Measures

Americans vote in the midterm elections on Nov. 3, and the results will decide which party controls the U.S. House and Senate for the next two years. Republicans are defending slim majorities in both chambers, according to a Fox News preview of the contests.

Voters will also choose governors in 36 states and weigh in on 145 statewide ballot measures, from voter ID rules to a proposed tax on very large fortunes.

Who controls Congress now, and who is favored?

Republicans hold the Senate 53-47. Fox News rates the race for control of the chamber a toss-up in its final Power Rankings. The forecast has Democrats favored in 48 seats and Republicans ahead in 47, leaving both parties three seats short of a majority.

Republicans need 50 seats to keep control because Vice President JD Vance casts the tie-breaking vote. Fox News says a strong Democratic night could produce as many as 54 Democratic seats, while a strong Republican night could leave the GOP with up to 52.

In the House, the Power Rankings point to Democrats retaking the majority. The forecast puts a good night for Democrats at as many as 240 of the 435 seats, and a good night for Republicans at 212 seats.

Where are the tightest Senate races?

Fox News lists Alaska, Iowa, Maine, South Carolina and Texas as toss-ups where Republicans are defending seats. Kansas is rated Lean Republican, and Ohio is rated Lean Democrat. On the Democratic side, Michigan is a toss-up, while Minnesota and New Hampshire are rated Lean Democrat.

Why are Republicans on the defensive?

Fox News points to history: the party in power in Washington has traditionally lost seats in midterm years. The network also cites a difficult climate for the GOP, including persistent inflation tied in part to what polls show is an unpopular war with Iran, along with increasingly negative approval ratings for President Donald Trump.

Trump has predicted Republicans will hold both chambers. On the campaign trail last week, he said a Republican Congress would keep putting America first and warned that Democratic control would be disastrous for the country.

Which governor races are competitive?

There are currently 26 Republican and 24 Democratic governors. Fox News rates Republican-held offices in Alaska, Nevada and Georgia as toss-ups, along with Wisconsin, where Democrats hold the office and it is open. Florida, Kansas and Texas are rated Lean Republican.

Four other races are rated Lean Democrat: Arizona, Michigan and Oregon, where Democrats are defending, and Iowa and Ohio, where Republicans are defending open seats.

What is on the ballot besides candidates?

• Voting rules: Measures requiring voter identification or banning noncitizen voting are on the ballot in 11 states, including Alaska, Arizona, California, Ohio and West Virginia.
• Alaska elections: Voters will decide whether to repeal ranked choice voting, open primaries and a campaign finance disclosure rule. They approved the current system in 2020 and narrowly kept it in 2024.
• California’s Proposition 40: The measure would impose a one-time 5% tax on the wealth of Californians worth over $1 billion, with most of the money going to health care, according to Fox News.
• Washington state: A referendum would repeal a 9.9% tax on income over $1 million a year that lawmakers recently approved. The state does not currently have a personal income tax.
• Redistricting: Voters in Maryland, Missouri and Colorado will weigh in on congressional redistricting measures.
• Social issues: Arizona, Colorado, Nebraska and Washington state have referendums on transgender students’ participation in sports. Missouri voters will consider repealing a right to abortion and banning gender transition medical care for children, and Virginia voters will decide whether to restore voting rights to convicted felons after release.

What does this mean for voters?

The balance of Congress shapes what legislation can pass and what oversight the White House faces over the next two years. Fox News notes that even a Democratic House majority could be narrow. A Republican total of 212 seats would be short of a majority, but it would still complicate life for the next Democratic speaker, who would have to balance the demands of the party’s moderate and far-left wings.

For residents of states with ballot measures, the votes could directly change taxes, election procedures and state law. In Washington state and California, the outcomes would affect high earners and the very wealthy, and California’s proposal would direct revenue largely to health care.

What should people watch on election night?

Fox News says the earliest-closing districts will offer clues about the House. Remy Numa, a Fox News contributor who steers the network’s Power Rankings, pointed to Kentucky’s 6th District, which covers Lexington and a large central area of the state. Trump won it by 15 points in the last presidential election, but Numa said that a mix of left-leaning college voters and farmers dealing with higher costs makes it look close this cycle.

Around Prague, based on reporting by Fox News