What Monday's Futures Rebound Means as Midterms and Apple Earnings Near

U.S. stock futures rose Monday, a day after a lower close on Friday, as lower oil prices lifted sentiment. Investors now face a week packed with Apple earnings, the midterm elections on Tuesday and a jobs report on Friday that could shape expectations for interest rates.

According to TradingView, premarket trading in funds tracking the major indexes was higher: the S&P 500 fund was up 0.34%, the Nasdaq 100 fund up 0.61% and the Dow fund up 0.36%.

Why it matters: rates, oil and a shaky tech sector

Several things that touch household finances are in play at once. Markets are betting on a possible Federal Reserve rate increase in December. The Economic Times put the odds at 78% for a 25-basis-point hike, while TradingView, citing the CME Group's FedWatch tool, put them at 72.9%. Analyst Mohamed El-Erian said the market probability is around 75%. The estimates differ, but all point to a hike being the market's base case.

Treasury yields were elevated, according to TradingView: the 10-year yielded 4.91% and the 2-year 4.59%.

Oil, a driver of fuel costs, eased but remained high. The Economic Times reported that WTI crude fell 4.56% to $99.37 and Brent fell 4.46% to $108.37. Both remain near the top of their 52-week ranges, and the outlet noted that voters are unhappy about gasoline costs.

A split October for the market

The Economic Times said October divided the market. The Nasdaq Composite lost more than 5% and the S&P 500 fell 0.9%, while the Dow gained 1.7% as money moved toward steadier stocks.

TradingView reported that the Dow fell more than 500 points on Friday, with information technology among the lagging sectors. El-Erian wrote that markets have become highly sensitive to tech news and that earnings disappointments were punished harshly. He cited Intel's 29% drop on Friday and said bond risk spreads on tech names continued to widen.

Apple and Palantir report after the bell

Apple reports fourth-quarter results Monday after the close. TradingView said analysts expect earnings of $1.99 per share on revenue of $113.38 billion. Apple shares were 0.41% lower in premarket trading.

It is also John Ternus's first earnings call as CEO, the Economic Times reported. The outlet said traders see Apple as the safer AI-era stock because it has spent less on datacenters and custom chips than Alphabet and Meta. Apple shares have risen four months in a row and are up nearly 30% this year, and the company's value is above $5 trillion, according to the same report.

Palantir also reports Monday. Analysts expect earnings of $0.41 per share on revenue of $2.18 billion, according to TradingView, and the stock was up 1.47% premarket. The Economic Times said Berkshire Hathaway reports as well, with AMD following on Tuesday.

What the midterms could mean for markets

Voters will fill all 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats on Tuesday. The Economic Times said President Donald Trump and the Republican Party face a tough race, citing voter frustration over gasoline costs and the conflict with Iran, and one recent poll that put Trump's approval at 31%. Analysts cited by the outlet said a Democratic win in the House, or in both chambers, could slow new legislation, make infrastructure spending harder to pass and add tension to debt-ceiling talks.

On Sunday, Trump told Right Side Broadcasting Network that the U.S. would “put it away very soon, one way or the other,” referring to the Iran war, according to TradingView.

What to watch this week

• Monday: Apple, Palantir and Berkshire Hathaway earnings, plus October manufacturing data.
• Tuesday: The midterm elections and AMD earnings, plus September job openings and factory orders data.
• Friday: The October jobs report. The Economic Times said economists expect payrolls to rise by 55,000, while El-Erian cited a consensus of 65,000 jobs and an unchanged unemployment rate of 4.2%.

The Economic Times said a weak or strong jobs number could quickly move the odds of a December rate increase.

Around Prague, based on reporting by The Economic Times, TradingView