Ryanair Weighs Pay Freezes and Smaller Crews as War Drives Up Jet Fuel Costs

Ryanair, Europe’s largest airline by passenger numbers, said it is weighing temporary pay freezes, smaller crews on flights and wider use of artificial intelligence to absorb a sharp rise in jet fuel costs tied to the war in the Middle East. The airline also expects ticket prices across European short-haul routes to climb, but says that will not fully cover the bill.

Chief Executive Michael O’Leary said the company expects fuel to stay expensive “well into 2027” unless the conflict is resolved quickly, according to The Guardian.

How much more fuel is costing Ryanair

Ryanair estimates its fuel bill will be about €2 billion (£1.6 billion) higher, the BBC and The Guardian reported. The two outlets frame the timing differently: the BBC describes the increase as short-term, while The Guardian says the airline expects it in its next financial year, which ends in March 2028.

The BBC reported that aviation fuel prices have surged this year because the war has sharply reduced the supply of refined products from the Gulf and intensified competition for fuel produced elsewhere. Ryanair said 80% of its fuel bill had been hedged, meaning bought in advance at fixed prices, but the cost of the remaining portion had doubled, according to the BBC.

The Guardian reported that oil hit a six-month high last Friday before falling to about $110 a barrel on Monday.

The hedging numbers behind the squeeze

• 80% hedged at $67 a barrel: Ryanair’s fuel needs through the end of March, according to The Guardian.
• 25% hedged at $95 a barrel: the airline’s cover for the following 12 months.
• €2 billion: the expected increase in the fuel bill.
• 15% to 20%: the fare increase O’Leary said last month he expects from Ryanair and other airlines next year, per the BBC.

What the company says it could do

O’Leary said the group is reviewing costs across its airlines, with a focus on airport negotiations, labor agreements that are coming up for renewal, lower crew ratios and greater use of AI. He said maturing labor agreements may require “temporary pay freezes.” The airline said the AI push would target productivity in operational and back-office functions, according to The Guardian.

The BBC said it had contacted Unite, the union that represents Ryanair employees, for comment.

Where the business stands now

The BBC reported that Ryanair’s pre-tax profit fell 16% to €2.4 billion in the six months to the end of September, largely because of higher fuel costs. The Guardian reported a post-tax profit of €1.61 billion for the quarter to the end of September, down 6% from a year earlier and in line with analyst expectations. Passenger numbers rose 5% to 64.5 million in that quarter.

Average fares fell 2% year on year in the quarter, The Guardian reported. The airline said fares for the final three months of the year are trending modestly ahead of the same period last year, and that the result will depend heavily on bookings for the October-November school midterm holiday and Christmas. It added that customers are booking closer to departure, which reduces its visibility.

What this means for travelers and staff

For passengers, Ryanair expects European short-haul fares to rise materially next year, partly because airlines’ fuel hedging deals are ending and some competitors are cutting capacity. The BBC noted that the carrier considers fare increases unlikely to be enough on their own.

For employees, the proposals could mean pay freezes where agreements are up for renewal, along with fewer crew on some flights and a greater role for AI in support work. No decisions were announced; the airline said it is reviewing the options.

Around Prague, based on reporting by BBC News, The Guardian