Czech local elections: ANO loses votes in poorer regions

The ANO movement fared badly in the local elections: it lost ground in every regional capital except Plzeň and gave up its leading position on municipal councils in poorer areas. Four years ago, the movement was popular there.

According to the research agency PAQ Research, Andrej Babiš’s movement, which won last autumn’s parliamentary election, is in a worse position in the three poorest regions than in 2022. In the Karlovy Vary Region, for example, it lost almost five percent of represented residents.

Sociologist and PAQ Research director Daniel Prokop believes that in weaker regions ANO lost the protest votes it had earlier won thanks to discontent with Petr Fiala’s (ODS) government. “Another reason is the absence of any regional policy,” he says.

Why voters turned away

According to Prokop, the governing parties lost the most in the Ústí, Karlovy Vary and Moravian-Silesian regions, especially in their poorest districts. Besides ANO, the SPD also slumped. “I think the big losses of governing parties in poorer regions will be one of the main stories of these elections,” the sociologist says.

The previous elections took place at the start of the inflation crisis, when Fiala’s government was in power. Dissatisfied voters went to the then parliamentary opposition. ANO and the SPD received many protest votes, but were unable to hold on to them.

Among other reasons, the sociologist points to ANO’s social policy, which focuses only on pensions. In his words, the government takes a rather restrictive approach toward the lower working class: it cuts unemployment support and retraining, raises taxes on labour, and the taxpayer tax credit is not growing. Of the successful measures, he recalled only the indexation and support for poorer schools introduced by Education Minister Robert Plaga.

Where the votes went

According to Prokop, voters mostly moved to local movements or to STAN. People are looking for someone who represents their region, and STAN puts more emphasis than others on regional development. In the poorest districts — Cheb, Ústí and Karviná — turnout fell, even though nationwide it rose by two percent: some protest voters simply did not show up.

ANO slumped especially hard in the Ústí and Karlovy Vary regions, and in Ústí nad Labem itself a local movement beat it by a wide margin. Prokop calls the Ústí Region a missed opportunity: ANO could have linked national and regional politics, and mayors could have presented it as a fight for the region. “STAN does this, for example, but in ANO I completely miss this approach.”

The movement has many mayors and regional governors, and it would make sense for them to fight for a redistribution of money in favour of middle-income and poorer regions. That did not happen, and now, the sociologist believes, ANO has been punished for it.

In the Moravian-Silesian Region, he says, a particular circumstance helped: until 2022 the traditional left was still strong there — the Social Democrats and the KSČM. It has almost vanished, and some of its votes may have gone to ANO. The movement held on to Ostrava, although under Tomáš Macura it had an enormous advantage there and has already slipped since his departure.

What to expect next

Prokop thinks this is more of an oscillation: voters in local elections react to the government’s approach to regional policy and punish it for it. “This should be a wake-up call for them to finally start doing regional policy. They could have expected to lose some protest votes in these elections, but they may pay for it in future ones. They may even lose the next parliamentary election because of it,” he warns.

Around Prague, based on reporting by seznamzpravy.cz