Alberta Votes on a Path to Independence: The Numbers Behind the Referendum

Voters in the Canadian province of Alberta go to the polls on Monday, Oct. 19, in the first referendum on the independence question in the province's history. Polls suggest the separatist side is unlikely to win, but the vote has exposed divisions inside the movement and has become a test of how Alberta and Ottawa relate to each other.

The ballot offers two choices: remain part of Canada, or begin the legal process toward a future, binding independence referendum. According to Al Jazeera, a vote for the second option would not make Alberta independent.

The key numbers

• Four of five: Al Jazeera reported that polls show this share of Albertans want the province to stay in Canada.
• One in five: Cory Morgan, founder of the group Pathway to Independence, says this is the group he is focused on. He said it is "not a movement that's leaving."
• Two-thirds: Data from Viewpoint Alberta, a University of Alberta research initiative, suggests this share of referendum supporters are voting strategically, to send Ottawa a message rather than to leave.
• C$400 billion: The Guardian reported that Premier Danielle Smith put the transition cost of separating at about this amount in June, plus $25 billion to $50 billion in annual costs for starting a new country.
• $170 billion: The University of Calgary's school of public policy said in June that separation could cost up to this much over five years, and that the long-term outlook would be highly unpredictable.
• 214 pages: The length of the Alberta transition plan recently published by Keith Wilson, described by the Guardian as one of the main architects of the modern separatist movement.

What is behind the numbers

Separatists have long argued that Alberta, home to the world's fourth-largest proven oil reserves according to Al Jazeera, sends too much money to Ottawa and gets too little back. They also object to federal energy policies they say limit the oil industry. The Guardian traced the grievance to the 1980 national energy program and noted that a 1915 cartoon already depicted western provinces feeding wealth to eastern cities.

Political scientist Jared Wesley of the University of Alberta told Al Jazeera that some separatist leaders have used the lower threshold of the ballot question to draw in people who want to be heard rather than to leave. He argued that the referendum exists mainly because of pressure from within Smith's governing United Conservative Party, whose members back separation more than Albertans generally do.

Smith called the vote but has said she opposes independence. She announced on Oct. 14 that she had voted against secession. According to the Guardian, her caution led some supporters to accuse her of betraying the movement.

The movement itself is divided. The Guardian reported that Wilson called the tasks of a transition "doable," mostly easy, and dismissed the idea that talks with Ottawa would be bitter or lengthy. Bill Jones of the Wildrose Independence party said leaders were moving too fast without the institutions a new country needs, from a police force to a pension system. The Guardian also reported allegations against other prominent figures, including claims that lawyer Jeff Rath mismanaged First Nations trust funds, and an investigation into a voter-data scandal involving organizer David Parker that exposed the personal information of nearly 3 million Albertans.

The campaign against leaving

Opponents have focused heavily on costs. Former premiers Jason Kenney, a Conservative, and Rachel Notley, of the New Democrats, have appeared on stage together. Prime Minister Mark Carney, who grew up in Alberta, visited Calgary and Edmonton last week. He told a rally that a vote against Canada is a dangerous bluff, saying "This is not poker." He also acknowledged that Albertans' frustrations are real, according to the Guardian. The Guardian said recent polls identify Carney as the most popular politician in the province.

Carney, a former governor of the Bank of England, has also pointed to projects his government wants to advance, including a pipeline to the Pacific coast to send more Alberta crude to Asia. Smith's gamble has drawn comparisons with the 2016 Brexit referendum, including from Carney, Al Jazeera reported. Wilson rejected that comparison.

Why it matters: a vote that sets a process, not an exit

For people in Alberta, a "yes" to the second option would start a legal process, not independence. Al Jazeera reported that any province trying to secede would first have to negotiate with the federal government, other provinces and Indigenous peoples in and around Alberta. The Guardian said the second vote would itself be binding.

For outside readers, the outcome bears on a major oil-producing region and on how Canada handles regional tensions. Even a decisive loss for the separatists may not end the debate. Morgan told Al Jazeera he would respect the voters' decision but would not stop campaigning.

The vote also comes as Alberta mourns a deadly fire that tore through CFB Wainwright and a nearby town on Saturday. According to the Guardian, it muted enthusiasm on both sides. Canada's armed forces reported multiple deaths and injuries.

Sources: Al Jazeera, The Guardian