How The Economist's Estimate of Russian War Losses Has Grown Since 2025

The British magazine The Economist now estimates that Russia has lost between 374,000 and 770,000 troops killed in its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Counting the wounded as well, it puts total Russian casualties at 1.4 million to 2.1 million, according to RBC-Ukraine, which reported the new figures released on Oct. 30.

The ranges are wide because they are modeled estimates, not confirmed counts. Russia does not publish reliable official casualty figures, and Moscow has not released its own statistics, the outlets reported.

How the estimate has changed

RBC-Ukraine listed three of The Economist's estimates over time. Each one is higher than the last:

• July 2025: 190,000 to 350,000 killed, and 0.9 million to 1.3 million killed and wounded.
• May 2026: 280,000 to 518,000 killed, and 1.1 million to 1.5 million killed and wounded.
• October 2026: 374,000 to 770,000 killed, and 1.4 million to 2.1 million killed and wounded.

Since May alone, the lower end of the estimated death toll has risen by 94,000, and the upper end by 252,000. RBC-Ukraine noted that over 15 months the lower estimate has nearly doubled, while the upper estimate has risen 2.2 times.

How The Economist arrives at its numbers

Because Moscow does not publish dependable data, The Economist relies on a statistical model. According to RBC-Ukraine and UA.NEWS, the model combines estimates from Western intelligence agencies, defense ministries and independent researchers.

The results are then checked against the magazine's own war tracker, which accounts for how intense the fighting is and how the front line moves. UA.NEWS stressed that the published figures are estimates from a model, not verified totals of dead and wounded.

What Ukrainian figures add

RBC-Ukraine also cited data from Ukraine's General Staff, which is a party to the war. By the General Staff's estimate, Russia lost 49,040 troops in October as of Oct. 29, with three days of the month still to go. That would be the highest monthly figure since the full-scale invasion began. The previous record, 48,670, was set in December 2024.

The same report said Ukraine's Defense Forces have killed or wounded 302,000 Russian troops with drones since the start of 2026. The Economist likewise noted that Ukrainian drones account for a significant share of Russian losses this year, according to UA.NEWS. These Ukrainian numbers have not been independently confirmed in the reports.

Why it matters: reading the figures with care

For readers trying to gauge the human cost of the war, the estimates offer a sense of scale and direction. Independent modeling suggests the toll on Russia's forces is rising, and the latest range is far above the one published in July 2025.

The gap between the low and high ends is also large. The death-toll range runs from 374,000 to 770,000, which shows how much uncertainty remains when one side withholds its data. Total casualties include both killed and wounded, so the 1.4 million to 2.1 million range should not be read as a death toll. Ukrainian General Staff figures come from a warring party and are best treated as claims rather than verified counts.

Around Prague, based on reporting by RBC-Ukraine, Apa.az, UA.NEWS