Israel Election by the Numbers: Turnout, Exit Polls and the 61-Seat Test
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Israelis voted in high numbers Tuesday in their first national election since the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas attack, and early exit polls show neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition nor the opposition reaching a governing majority, according to Fox News and NPR. Results are preliminary, and the final count may not be known until Wednesday, NPR reported.
The vote was widely seen as a referendum on Netanyahu, Israel’s longest-serving prime minister, who is facing a challenge from former military chief Gadi Eisenkot.
The central numbers
- 25 seats: Likud’s projection in the 120-seat Knesset, the largest of any party, per exit polls cited by Fox News. Eisenkot’s Yashar party is projected at 23 seats on Channels 12 and 13 and 21 seats on Kan 11.
- 50 seats: The projected total for Netanyahu’s right-wing and religious bloc, according to Fox News. NPR also reported 50 seats for his coalition.
- 53 or 52 seats: The projection for the main opposition parties. Fox News reported 53 seats, while NPR reported 52 for a bloc of four opposition parties led by Eisenkot, citing three major exit polls.
- 17 seats: The projection for Arab parties, per Fox News.
- 61 seats: The number generally needed to form a government. Fox News said neither major bloc reaches it in the projections.
- 77.7%: Turnout as of 10 p.m., the highest since 1999, according to the Central Elections Committee, as cited by NPR.
What is behind the numbers
Fox News reported that 55.7% of eligible voters had cast ballots by 4 p.m. local time, the highest at that hour since measurements began in 1973. NPR described the final turnout as the highest in more than two decades. The two reports use different benchmarks, so they are not directly comparable.
Fox News said the opposition parties together with the Arab factions would hold a combined 70 seats, though they would not necessarily agree to govern together. NPR analyst Shira Efron of the Rand Corp. said the result looked very good for Eisenkot and that he would most likely receive the mandate to form a government from the president, perhaps as a minority government or with support from Arab politicians. Fox News noted Arab parties could back Eisenkot without joining his coalition.
NPR reported that Netanyahu urged right-wing supporters to vote and, in social media posts, expressed alarm at the number of Arab citizens at the polls. President Trump publicly endorsed Netanyahu, NPR said.
Why it matters
Israelis vote for parties, not directly for a prime minister, so the exit polls do not settle who will lead the country. Parties need at least 3.25% of valid votes to win seats, Fox News reported, which means small shifts in the count for smaller parties could change the balance between the blocs.
Fox News said a Times of Israel poll five days before the election found 87% of respondents had made their final choice and 2.4% were undecided between the pro- and anti-Netanyahu blocs.
What happens next
Once final results are certified, President Isaac Herzog will consult the new parliamentary factions and pick the lawmaker he thinks has the best chance of forming a government, Fox News reported. Securing that first chance would not guarantee a majority, and coalition talks could last days or weeks, according to NPR and Fox News.
