Why the UK Now Blames Iran’s Revolutionary Guard for the RAF Fairford Incident

British Prime Minister Andy Burnham told the House of Commons on Monday that Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) was behind the suspected attack on RAF Fairford, a Gloucestershire base used by the U.S. Air Force. It is the firmest attribution the UK has made since the incident on Sept. 27, according to The Guardian.

The government announced new sanctions and summoned Iran’s ambassador. No one has been charged over Fairford, and what the suspects were planning is still unclear.

What did Burnham tell MPs?

Burnham said the UK assesses it as highly likely that the incident was coordinated in Iran and “almost certainly directed” by the IRGC, according to both The Independent and The Guardian. He said Britain would not tolerate such threats on its soil and would go after Iran’s use of criminal networks and their funding.

The Guardian noted that this goes beyond his earlier comments. In the days after the incident, he had spoken only of “strong indications” of Iranian involvement.

What happened at the base on Sept. 27?

Five men from London drove three white vans to Whelford, a village beside the base, shortly after midnight on Sept. 27, The Guardian reported. The Independent said the men were British citizens in their 20s who were arrested near the base and held over explosives and terrorism offenses.

Police found no explosives in the vans, though they seized a quantity of petrol, according to The Independent. The five were released on bail within a day, The Guardian said. The Independent reported that seven suspects have now been arrested in total and released under strict bail conditions.

What is the UK doing in response?

Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband summoned the Iranian ambassador. Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood told MPs the government was sanctioning two people accused of conducting espionage and attacks for Iran in Europe and the U.S. The Independent identified them as the IRGC’s head of counterespionage and a facilitator of plots against Iranian dissidents.

Burnham promised further sanctions to limit the ability of Iran and the IRGC to cause harm. A joint statement from the UK, the U.S. and more than 20 other countries condemned what it called Iranian plotting, sabotage and cyberattacks around the world. It said Fairford showed the IRGC’s willingness to act beyond its borders through covert networks and proxies.

What is still unclear?

The Guardian reported that, despite Burnham’s statement, it is not clear what the authorities believe actually happened at Fairford. Some experts have speculated it was a feint meant to show that Iran could in theory target a relatively open site. British sources have repeatedly said Iran lacks the capability for a sophisticated drone attack, according to the paper.

A week after the incident, the U.S. withdrew 12 B-1 bombers from the base, The Guardian reported. U.S. media reports linked the move to security concerns, and The Guardian said they pointed to worries about a possible drone attack on a base used to strike Iran during the Middle East war in the spring and summer.

Why does it matter?

The statement ties a security scare near a U.S.-used base to a named foreign state organization, and it has diplomatic and security consequences. The U.S. has shown concern about the safety of its bases in Europe, according to The Guardian, and Burnham said the UK would keep working with U.S. counterparts on Fairford.

The Guardian also placed the incident among other Iran-linked cases. A week ago, two Iranian nationals were charged over an alleged plot to attack the Jewish community in Manchester with a homemade chlorine powder bomb. Prosecutors said they were directed by a third party believed to be in Iran. A trial at the Old Bailey has been scheduled.

The joint statement also referred to a recent campaign of attacks across Europe on Jewish communities, Iranian journalists and U.S. interests, claimed by a group called Harakat Ashab al-Yamin al-Islamiya. The Guardian said the U.S. has indicted a man it accuses of being behind that group.

How have critics responded?

Roger Macmillan, a security expert and former head of security at Iran International, told The Independent the sanctions were welcome but would not stop future attacks. He called on the government to bring forward a law banning the IRGC and to give police and security services more resources, saying “warning words are not enough.” Lord Walney, who chairs a parliamentary group on defending democracy, said the attribution showed why the government must treat Iran as a hostile regime. He also called Miliband’s handshake with Iran’s foreign minister last month a grave mistake.

In July, Britain used new powers aimed at state-sponsored proxies to ban support for the IRGC and a linked group accused of attacks on Jewish and Israeli sites and on Persian-language media, The Independent reported.

Around Prague, based on reporting by The Independent, The Guardian