China’s Imports Jump 41.6% in October, Outpacing Exports and Shrinking Surplus

China’s imports grew faster than its exports in October, and both beat economists’ forecasts, according to customs data. Imports rose 41.6% from a year earlier, while exports rose 35.2%, the South China Morning Post and CNBC reported.

The result means China’s foreign trade surplus shrank sharply and came in below forecasts, according to CNBC as relayed by UA.NEWS. The South China Morning Post said Beijing is working to address a record trade imbalance.

The key numbers from China’s October trade data

• Exports up 35.2% year on year. The South China Morning Post said shipments were worth $412.33 billion, supported by the continuing technology cycle and a rebound in demand as U.S.-China relations improved.
• September exports were up 36.3%. October growth was therefore slightly slower than the month before, even though it topped expectations.
• Imports up 41.6% year on year. That is the fastest of the two readings and outpaced exports for the month.
• September imports were up 31%. According to CNBC, as relayed by UA.NEWS, import growth picked up notably from that level.
• Forecasts for exports were lower. The South China Morning Post cited a Wind poll of economists expecting 33.25% growth. UA.NEWS, citing CNBC, said a Reuters survey expected 33.5%.
• Forecasts for imports were lower, too. Analysts surveyed by Reuters had expected import growth of 32%, according to CNBC.

What is behind the figures

The South China Morning Post attributed the strength in exports to two factors: the ongoing technology cycle and a recovery in demand as relations between Washington and Beijing improved. The outlet did not break down which goods or which markets drove the gains in the data it published.

Import growth accelerated from 31% in September to 41.6% in October, according to the CNBC report. Imports beating the Reuters forecast of 32% by a wide margin was the main reason the surplus came in smaller than analysts had expected.

The two reports differ on small details. The South China Morning Post said the data came out on Tuesday, while UA.NEWS said Monday. The forecast for export growth also varies slightly depending on the poll: 33.25% from Wind, 33.5% from Reuters. In both cases, the actual reading of 35.2% came in higher.

Why it matters: a narrower surplus in a record imbalance

China’s trade surplus is the gap between what it sells abroad and what it buys. The South China Morning Post described Beijing as trying to address a record imbalance, and October’s figures show that gap narrowing as imports grew faster than exports.

For readers outside China, the data offer a snapshot of global trade. Strong export growth tied to the technology cycle points to continued demand for goods that move through international supply chains. Faster import growth means China bought more from the rest of the world over the past year than in the comparable period before. The sources do not specify which countries or products accounted for the increase, or what the surplus came to in dollar terms.

The South China Morning Post also linked the export rebound to improved U.S.-China relations, a connection that matters to businesses and consumers in both countries that depend on trade between them.

What the data do not show

The reports do not give the dollar value of October imports or the size of the trade surplus. Both outlets said the surplus fell sharply and missed forecasts, but neither supplied a figure. Whether the pattern continues will depend on later monthly customs releases.

Read next
China Posts 4.5 Percent Growth as AI Demand Lifts Exports but Not Shoppers
Why Chinese Brands Dropped Mbappé Over a Meme About Mao
Qantas Moves 850 Corporate Jobs to Accenture, Mostly in India

Around Prague, based on reporting by South China Morning Post, UA.NEWS