Head of Czech Intelligence: Russia Could Attack a NATO Country Within Months

Michal Koudelka, director of the Czech counterintelligence service BIS, told the British newspaper The Guardian that Russia could organize an attack on a NATO member state within months rather than years. According to him, alongside intensifying drone attacks, the Kremlin is also weighing a limited invasion of an alliance country bordering Russia.

Provocations and Information Campaigns

"It's possible. We could be talking about a limited invasion, false-flag provocations, or a large-scale campaign to influence public opinion," Koudelka told the newspaper at BIS headquarters in Prague. In his assessment, such a scenario could unfold within the coming months.

At the same time, the head of Czech intelligence noted that many countries and institutions are doing everything possible to prevent this from happening.

The Tactic of "Escalating to De-escalate"

Koudelka described Moscow's current approach as "escalation aimed at de-escalation" — the Kremlin is trying to strike at the vulnerable points of Western societies in order to erode their support for Ukraine in the war. "They believe that if they push escalation to the limit, European countries will decide to abandon their support for Ukraine," he explained. Ukraine has now spent nearly five years fending off a large-scale Russian invasion with the help of Western assistance.

These warnings from intelligence chiefs came shortly after Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk told the Sejm that, according to intelligence data, Russia plans to carry out hybrid attacks using drones and missiles against countries supporting Ukraine in the coming months — aiming to demonstrate that NATO's Article 5 on collective defense is more theoretical than practical. French President Emmanuel Macron called Tusk's warning "well-founded and well-argued."

Similar Assessments from Other Intelligence Agencies

The Guardian also interviewed Normunds Mežviets, head of Latvia's security service, and Thomas Nilsson, head of Sweden's military intelligence and security service. All three, including Koudelka, agree on one point: whatever happens, Russia's sabotage campaign in Europe is likely to intensify in the coming months.

Around Prague, based on reporting by novinky.cz