Poll: STAN overtakes ODS to become the Czech Republic's leading opposition force

The STAN (Mayors and Independents) movement has taken the top spot among the Czech Republic's opposition parties, polling 18% of the vote in September — its best result since last year's parliamentary elections. According to the NMS agency, analyst Tereza Fridrichová noted that the movement has now decisively pulled ahead of the Civic Democrats (ODS).

Third place went to the Pirates with 8.9% of potential voters, followed by Okamura's SPD with 7.4%. The Motorists party, meanwhile, managed only 4.4% and, like the Christian Democrats, TOP 09 and the Freedom and Direct Democracy movement (all hovering around 3%), would fail to clear the threshold for entering the Chamber of Deputies.

Why STAN is on the rise

According to political scientist Ladislav Cabada of the University of West Bohemia in Plzeň, the Mayors are cementing their position as the leading opposition force by betting on centrist liberal politics. This allows them to draw voters not only from other opposition parties but also from the ANO movement. "STAN already established itself as the most prominent voice of liberal politics back in the previous government, positioning itself firmly within the European mainstream," the expert explained, noting that the movement supports adopting the euro and backs Ukraine.

Fridrichová added that STAN's rising popularity is also being boosted by the approaching municipal elections, where the movement has traditionally performed strongly: it is currently communicating more actively and gaining greater visibility in the public sphere. Just how this will play out in real numbers will become clear after October's local elections.

ODS losing its footing

Cabada attributes ODS's declining appeal to the party's blurred identity — the Civic Democrats' ratings have been slipping for several months now, a trend confirmed by polls from other agencies as well. NMS data also shows the party's core electorate shrinking: back in March, nearly 8% of voters said they firmly intended to vote for ODS; now that figure stands at just 4.3%.

"ODS is searching for its identity. The party has tried to position itself as a broad centre-right coalition — it includes liberals like Eva Decroix, a respectable chairman in Martin Kupka, and a conservative in Alexandr Vondra," the political scientist said, adding that this kind of internal diversity tends to alienate voters rather than attract them. He also compared STAN leader Vít Rakušan to Kupka: both came up through municipal politics and share a restrained, businesslike style, though Rakušan has more charisma.

The opposition could win a majority

Compared with last year's election, ANO and the Motorists are also losing ground — so much so that the three opposition parties in parliament (ODS, STAN and the Pirates), according to NMS's model, would currently secure a bare majority of 101 seats.

According to Cabada, voters are already responding to the reality of post-election governing cooperation: "If I were a Motorists voter, I couldn't bring myself to vote for them again — they haven't delivered on a single point of their election programme." Analyst Fridrichová added that former Motorists supporters from 2025 are now most often looking toward ANO or the Freedom and Direct Democracy movement.

ANO, meanwhile, according to Cabada, may be losing centrist liberal voters it previously won over from ODS or the ČSSD: "These people haven't completely changed their values overnight. It's hard for them to stomach some of the statements made by cabinet members, or by the prime minister himself, who often accommodates SPD or the Motorists."

Around Prague, based on reporting by novinky.cz