Berkeley Earth Is 95% Sure 2026 Will Beat Record Heat of 2024

The world is on course for its hottest year on record, according to Berkeley Earth, an independent U.S. research group. It told BBC News that, with two months of the year left, it is 95% confident that 2026 will beat the previous record set in 2024.

The forecast landed as negotiators opened the COP31 UN climate summit in the Turkish city of Antalya on Monday. A separate report from the UN's World Meteorological Organization (WMO) was more cautious but also pointed to continued heat in 2027.

What the forecasts say

Berkeley Earth's Dr. Robert Rohde said a run of record-warm years is what scientists expect as global warming progresses, along with collapsing glaciers, record heatwaves and droughts. He warned that this may be only the beginning and that much larger and more dramatic changes could come later.

The WMO's report was more conservative. It forecasts that 2026 will be among the four warmest years on record. It also says 2027 will bring no relief, because an unusually powerful El Niño is expected to continue into next year and push temperatures higher. WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said the situation "gives new meaning to the phrase off the charts," the BBC reported.

The BBC also reported that the EU's Copernicus climate service confirmed on Friday that October was the hottest on record.

How El Niño adds to human-caused warming

The main driver of rising temperatures is the build-up of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, largely from burning fossil fuels. The extra greenhouse gases have trapped additional heat, and about 90% of it has been absorbed by the oceans, according to the BBC.

Saulo said El Niño does not add new heat to the planet. It releases heat from the ocean, which is the warmest ever measured, so there is more heat available to release. This natural climate pattern is pushing global temperatures higher still.

The world is currently on track for 2.8C of warming above pre-industrial levels by the end of the century, the BBC said. That would all but guarantee missing the Paris Agreement goal of 1.5C.

Why it matters for daily life

The BBC pointed to recent impacts: extensive wildfires across Europe and a sudden glacier collapse in Nepal that killed more than 1,000 people.

In the UK, the Met Office has said this summer's record heat was made 130 times more likely by climate change. Defence Secretary Wes Streeting cited the wildfires and heat last month when he urged the public and businesses to think about coping with more natural disasters, including stockpiling food. He also pointed to a higher risk of flooding this winter because of El Niño.

Stephen Belcher, the Met Office's chief scientist, told BBC's Panorama that infrastructure is designed for a 20th-century climate that no longer exists, so all aspects of life will change.

What negotiators will try to settle at COP31

Countries will negotiate for two weeks, with leaders attending this week. The BBC said more nations now face the task of cutting emissions while also adapting to new weather extremes.

UN climate chief Simon Stiell is expected to tell governments that no single summit can close the gap between science and reality, but that the urgency must drive action. He is also expected to say that global renewables saved around half a trillion dollars last year. The International Energy Agency has predicted that renewable capacity growth over the next six years will be 57% greater than in the previous period.

The Turkish government wants talks to focus on a new electrification goal, meaning a shift of energy systems from fossil fuels to electricity, and on cutting waste. The BBC said this is likely to divide countries. Early drafts of the EU position it has seen say the bloc would back an electrification goal only if countries could not meet it using gas. Saudi Arabia and Russia have previously pushed gas as an interim, "cleaner" alternative to coal.

The BBC understands the UK government is reluctant to set new goals at COP31 and wants to focus on existing agreements. Sustainability groups said the government's expected cut to its electric vehicle targets risks its long-term climate goals. In September, MPs on the International Development Committee criticized cuts to the aid budget that they said left the UK unable to meet earlier climate funding commitments.

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Around Prague, based on reporting by BBC News