Czechia winter outlook: mild, rainy and with little snow

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) expects mostly mild and wet weather across the continent in its first seasonal winter outlook. The signal is strongest in southern and western Europe, but a warmer winter is also very likely in Central Europe, including Czechia.

The models also show a clear signal for above-average precipitation across most of Europe, including its central parts. According to the outlook, winter will be drier mainly in the Mediterranean. Severe Weather Europe’s analysis suggests low-pressure systems will form more often over the Atlantic and northern Europe. Such a pattern usually favours westerly flow, which brings milder, moister air to much of the continent.

More precipitation does not mean more snow

A warmer winter raises the share of rain and cuts snowfall, especially in the lowlands. Only high mountain areas, such as the Alps, have a better chance of above-average snowfall.

El Niño and the polar vortex

Another major factor is in play this year: El Niño is rapidly strengthening in the Pacific. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) expects it to reach record intensity and last at least until the end of winter.

El Niño does not have a strong influence on European winter weather, but signs of its indirect effect have been seen in the past. During strong El Niño episodes, European winters tend to be warmer and wetter, as the seasonal outlooks predict. It may also affect the polar vortex: historical analyses show that a strong El Niño makes a disruption more likely. So even in an overall warmer winter, short outbreaks of Arctic air can paradoxically reach lower latitudes.

Seasonal outlooks have limits

The Czech Hydrometeorological Institute (ČHMÚ) warns that long-term seasonal outlooks must be treated with caution. They do not say what the weather will be on specific days, only show the probability of certain conditions over a given period.

“Long-term seasonal outlooks CANNOT be interpreted or treated in the same way as a forecast for tomorrow or the day after. That is why we call a monthly outlook an outlook, not a forecast,” the institute wrote in a Facebook post.

Around Prague, based on reporting by novinky.cz