Hurricane Simon Hits Mexico's Pacific Coast: The Numbers Behind the Threat

Hurricane Simon battered Mexico's Pacific coast on Sunday as a Category 3 storm, with its eye staying just offshore while its strongest winds and rain hit communities between the Sierra Madre mountains and the ocean, according to The Associated Press. Authorities ordered evacuations, closed the Puerto Vallarta airport temporarily and urged residents to stay indoors.

The storm's most damaging winds and rain were expected to reach the Puerto Vallarta area around midnight and last through Monday morning, according to the AP and DW. Forecasters say the danger is not over after that, because Simon is forecast to turn back toward the coast on Wednesday.

The central numbers

• 115 mph (185 kph): Simon's maximum sustained winds late Sunday, down from earlier in the day, according to the U.S. National Hurricane Center. The center still expected a dangerous hurricane as it passed near the coast.
• 28 and 93 municipalities: Mexican civil protection bulletins put 28 municipalities in Jalisco and Colima under the highest cyclone alert level, DW reported. Another 93 were under high alert.
• 22 coastal municipalities: Jalisco state suspended classes in these areas and began evacuating people from at-risk zones, the AP reported.
• 15 miles and 60 miles: Hurricane-force winds extend up to 15 miles (30 kilometers) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds reach up to 60 miles (95 kilometers). The AP said that means the whole area between the western coast and the Sierra Madre could be affected.
• 2 to 4 inches, up to 8 inches: The additional rain the hurricane center expects in Colima, Jalisco, Nayarit and Sinaloa through early Thursday.
• 30 inches (76 centimeters): Isolated rainfall totals possible in parts of Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco, which the center said could produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides.

What is behind the numbers

By late Sunday, Simon's eye was moving northwest at about 5 mph (7 kph), roughly 45 miles (75 kilometers) south of Cabo Corrientes, the AP reported. Philippe Papin, a senior hurricane center specialist, said that westernmost tip of mainland Mexico was the area most likely to take a direct hit. Cabo Corrientes lies at the southern end of Bahia de Banderas, the bay where Puerto Vallarta sits.

Papin said the hurricane warning zone should expect "catastrophic wind and life-threatening storm surge impacts." He also warned of very heavy rain, flooding and mudslides in higher terrain, along with significant swells.

Flooding had already begun. In Manzanillo, residents waded through flooded streets Sunday morning as soldiers helped rescue people after overnight rain, DW reported. Resident Cecilia Palomar told Reuters her whole house flooded and that she had moved her elderly mother to higher ground, though her mother did not want to leave home.

Why it matters for residents and travelers

Puerto Vallarta is a popular tourist destination in Jalisco. The AP noted that many Mexicans live in communities inland and uphill from the resorts, where housing might not withstand the storm.

President Claudia Sheinbaum urged people in Jalisco, Colima, Nayarit and Michoacan on X to stay sheltered until the government announces the danger has passed. She also asked them to follow civil protection guidance and avoid public roads. Authorities suspended non-essential activities and opened emergency shelters in threatened coastal communities, according to DW. Jalisco asked the tourism sector to make sure workers and visitors were fully accommodated in shelters or safe zones.

Daily life was already disrupted. Hotel worker Víctor Martínez told the AP he could not get to work because public transportation had stopped and most of his hotel had been evacuated. He spent Sunday afternoon buying nonperishable food. He recalled a Category 5 hurricane that hit the area in 2002 and said people are taking more precautions now.

Some visitors were caught off guard. Ricardo Ramírez and Brenda Villarreal, who had traveled from Guadalajara for a four-day vacation, told the AP they had never experienced a hurricane and were unprepared. Police with megaphones told people along the boardwalk to take shelter, and not everyone complied, the AP reported.

What comes next

The hurricane center said Simon should move farther offshore Monday before turning back toward Mexico's coast on Wednesday, according to DW. Rain is expected to continue in several states through early Thursday.

Around Prague, based on reporting by DW, ABC News