Sabotage in Europe rises: experts fear a coordinated attack

What began as a few stray drones has turned in recent months into a sophisticated operation which, experts believe, is linked to the Kremlin. Experts warn that Europe may face a coordinated attack. Awareness of the threat has grown, but the question of how the West should respond remains open.

The difficulty lies in the unclear nature of most operations. Officials have directly blamed Russia for some incidents, others were carried out by third-country nationals recruited on social media, and for some (at least from open sources) it is impossible to prove who was behind them at all.

What the database shows

The Everywhere War Tracker project, run by analysts at the Ukrainian think tank Sahaidachnyi Security Center, helps make sense of the stream of incidents. It is updated daily and has tracked military provocations, sabotage, cyberattacks and other hybrid operations against European countries since 2022. According to the project, this September was the busiest month for recorded incidents. Project head Olena Davlikanova cautions that the data is incomplete: some incidents are not made public, and others cannot be officially linked to Russia.

In her words, the incidents are growing bolder because this is an existential war for Russia, and Moscow is trying to destabilize Europe. The main goal is to get European states to stop supporting Ukraine and, ultimately, to restore Russian hegemony over Europe.

Which scenarios are being discussed

Davlikanova expects a large-scale operation: first a cyberattack, then sabotage in various places, involving not only drones but also ground vehicles loaded with explosives. Seizing a small piece of territory in one of the Baltic states, followed by a “swap” for an end to support for Ukraine, is also possible. Marek Menkiszak, head of the Russia department at Poland’s Centre for Eastern Studies (OSW), adds that Russia may continue its earlier methods and add “kinetic” actions: drones flying across borders, missiles falling near them, or border violations.

European officials share similar concerns. According to Politico, EU capitals are quietly preparing to respond to a large-scale hybrid attack with multiple casualties; five diplomats and officials say the likelihood of such a scenario is growing. “We must be ready for something serious,” a senior EU diplomat said, citing the recent discovery of a drone carrying explosives at a German airport. Another official added: “Casualties will sooner or later become inevitable. It is pure luck that there have been none so far.”

The EU is not united

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen proposed an “emergency security protocol” to coordinate EU countries and a “European Security Council” in her latest State of the Union address. They are expected to become part of the “European Security Strategy”, to be published in early November. But a number of diplomats object: in their view, implementation would take months and duplicates NATO’s functions. In the event of a large-scale attack, the decision for now remains with the affected country, and EU states view the threat differently.

Some incidents with suspected Russian involvement:

— August 4–5, Germany: drones disrupted operations at Leipzig/Halle airport, one carrying explosives; the German government later blamed Russia.
— August 10, Bulgaria: fire and explosions at an EMCO ammunition depot.
— August 13, Italy: fire and explosion at the KNDS Ammo Italy ammunition plant near Rome.
— August 15, Estonia: fire at a plant supplying drones to Ukraine.
— August 25, Slovakia: police, according to media reports, prevented an arson attack on the Skyeton plant and detained three foreigners.
— August 30, Poland: two suspicious fires at companies linked to the production of drones and helicopter parts.
— September 3, Germany: two Bulgarians detained on suspicion of arson near the Rohde & Schwarz headquarters in Munich.
— September 11–12, Bulgaria: another fire and explosions at the EMCO depot.
— September 15, Lithuania: NATO fighter jets shot down a Gerbera drone.

Sources: BBC, Reuters and local authorities.

Around Prague, based on reporting by seznamzpravy.cz