Czech investor Jan Barta bet on undervalued Edenred — and wins
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Prague-based investment group Pale Fire Capital, led by Jan Barta, has bet on French meal-voucher giant Edenred, whose shares have plunged more than 45% since 2023 amid regulatory restrictions in Italy and Brazil. Now, after a strong quarterly report and an upgraded company forecast, that bet is starting to pay off.
Edenred raised its 2026 guidance this week after beating analysts' expectations in the second quarter — operating EBITDA reached €616 million (14.9 billion crowns) against a market forecast of €606 million. First-half revenue came in at €1.5 billion (over 36 billion crowns), and management narrowed its forecast for the annual EBITDA decline from a range of 8–12% to 7–10%.
It was precisely in that share-price slump that the Prague-based Pale Fire Capital saw an opportunity. According to Reuters, the firm now holds just under 7% of Edenred's shares. Back in December last year, as reported by Hospodářské noviny, the Pale Fire Capital Sicav AS fund notified the French regulator that it had crossed the 5% threshold — at the time it held 12,023,963 shares, or 5.01% of the share capital.
Jan Barta, who handles capital-markets relations for the group, believes the regulatory pressure has, paradoxically, brought clarity to the company's position in its key markets, and that from 2027 Edenred should return to organic profit growth above 8% — in line with its long-term average.
“Once the market realises Edenred is returning to long-term growth, that will significantly re-rate the stock,” Barta told Reuters. In his estimate, the fair value of the share in the event of a takeover is €36, whereas the stock currently trades around €25–26 — roughly 30% below that level.
A notable jump in the share price came in June, when shares rose 17% after Edenred confirmed interest from investment funds in a possible takeover of the company. However, Edenred's chief executive Bertrand Dumazy clarified that there was no concrete offer yet, and the stock's 42% recovery since the start of the year only complicates the arithmetic for funds that would need to raise debt to finance a deal.
Analysts at Morningstar and J.P. Morgan agree with Barta's assessment: the market punished Edenred's shares too harshly for regulatory risk, even though the company's network in its key markets has remained resilient. For Jan Barta and his team, that means one thing — a patient bet on an undervalued meal-voucher giant is starting to pay off.
