Why today's Dubai property boom isn't the 2008 bubble again

Real estate agent and investment expert Žaneta Vašková, who has spent years advising clients on Dubai's property market, explains why the emirate's current boom is fundamentally different from the situation twenty years ago and rests not on speculation but on strict rules and real money.

According to Vašková, the turning point for the market came in 2002, when Dubai first allowed foreigners to own property on a freehold basis. Before that, buying a home was effectively possible only for citizens of Gulf countries, and the city itself had around 850,000 residents. After the reform, the population grew to 1.3 million by 2005, and districts such as Dubai Marina, Arabian Ranches and Palm Jumeirah appeared on the map — today among the most prestigious addresses in the world.

It is the 2008 crisis, the expert points out, that is the source of most investors' current fears, but it needs to be seen in the right context. Back then the market was essentially unregulated: developers launched projects without full title to the land, escrow accounts didn't exist, and banks issued mortgages covering 100–120% of a property's value. The market was propped up by speculation, and when the global financial crisis hit, prices collapsed, some projects were left unfinished, and some developers and residents left the country.

It was precisely that experience, Vašková says, that led to a sweeping overhaul of the entire market. Today a developer must own 100% of the land, use a government-regulated escrow account supervised by RERA, and confirm financing for construction before a project even starts.

The opening of the Burj Khalifa in 2010 and the right to host Expo 2020 signaled to investors that the city's growth would not stop. Dubai stopped being simply a place to work and became a city people want to live in permanently — demand shifted from speculative to real, family-driven.

The pandemic had a similar effect: strict measures, business support and a fast vaccination rollout let Dubai reopen earlier than many other destinations. Buyer preferences also changed — instead of apartments downtown or by the water, demand shifted toward larger villas and townhouses. The ten-year Golden Visa program, with its investment threshold lowered to two million dirhams, also played an important role.

Today's Dubai already has around 4 million residents, with a target of 8 million by 2040, and oil's share of the economy has fallen below 1%: growth is now driven by trade, the financial sector and technology. Maximum mortgage financing is now capped at 60–70% of a property's value, and escrow accounts are reliably protected.

In 2025 alone, almost 10,000 millionaires moved to Dubai, and 72 to 80% of market deals are made in cash. “This is a market driven by liquidity, not credit, which makes it more stable and resilient,” Vašková concludes, also noting growing interest from institutional investors.