AfD surges ahead of ruling CDU in Saxony-Anhalt poll before elections

A fresh opinion poll ahead of elections in the German state of Saxony-Anhalt has revealed a sharp lead for the far-right AfD over the ruling CDU. According to the survey, 39% of voters would back AfD's 35-year-old candidate Ulrich Siegmund, compared with just 28% for the state's sitting CDU premier, Sven Schulze.

The result is a heavy blow for CDU leader and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz: the gap between the two parties has widened compared with earlier surveys. Even Merz's personal visit to the region on Monday failed to shift the mood, despite his calls for voters to mobilise and his warnings of looming economic decline. "Saxony-Anhalt must not become a testing ground for embittered citizens!" the chancellor declared.

How the numbers have shifted

Not long ago, the picture looked quite different. In a previous poll conducted for the public broadcaster ZDF, incumbent premier Schulze was ahead with 48% against Siegmund's 32%. Now the trend has reversed entirely, and the latest figures amount to a genuine setback for Schulze as he fights to hold on to his post.

Who else could enter parliament

Besides AfD and the CDU, the survey suggests the state parliament could also include the post-communist Left party with 12%, the Social Democrats (SPD) with 7%, and the Greens with 5%. According to the poll, the remaining parties would fail to clear the five-percent threshold required for entry.

A risk to AfD's hopes for a one-party government

If the forecast holds, AfD's ambitions of forming a single-party government could be derailed. In theory, the Greens, the Left (12%), the SPD (7%) and the CDU (22%) could together muster 46% of the vote and form a coalition to block AfD.

There is, however, a major obstacle: under a decision taken at its party congress, the CDU has categorically ruled out any coalition with the Left. It also remains unclear whether other smaller parties — notably Sahra Wagenknecht's alliance, "Reason and Justice" (BSW) — will clear the five-percent hurdle: the poll gives the group just 4%. The Free Democratic Party (FDP), meanwhile, is projected to win only 3% and would miss out on parliament altogether.

Around Prague, based on reporting by novinky.cz