The far-right party Alternative for Germany (AfD) has a genuine shot at leading the government of one of Germany's federal states. According to polls, more than 40% of voters are prepared to back the party in the Saxony-Anhalt state election on September 6. Germany's domestic intelligence agency officially classified the party as extremist last year, and all other political forces at the national level refuse to work with it.
Jens Hönisch, a German journalist and election expert at the public broadcaster MDR, notes that the final outcome is still far from certain — polls reflect current sentiment rather than a guaranteed result. Still, support for AfD in the region has held steadily above 30% since 2024, a sign that voters' intentions are far from fleeting.
According to Hönisch, the party's rising popularity stems mainly from Germany's weak economic performance and record-low public trust in the chancellor and the federal government. "Voters have long stopped supporting this party merely as a protest against the current leadership — they genuinely credit it with a certain level of competence," the journalist says.
Notably, migration remains the central issue mobilizing AfD supporters — even though only 11% of Saxony-Anhalt's population has an immigrant background and just 8% are foreign nationals, compared to a national average of around 30%. The expert explains that the party skillfully ties migration to virtually every other problem — including, for instance, a lack of healthcare funding — even though economists dismiss such arguments as unfounded.
If the party were to head the state government, the biggest changes would likely come in education and culture, areas where regional authorities hold particularly broad powers. AfD intends to terminate agreements on public broadcasting, abolish mandatory school attendance (while keeping the general obligation to receive an education), eliminate inclusive classrooms, and separate schooling for German children and children of foreign nationals.
The party also aims to gain control over the state's domestic intelligence service — the very body meant to counter right-wing extremist activity. In migration policy, however, AfD's room for maneuver is limited: decisions on refugee distribution and immigration fall under the jurisdiction of the federal government and the European Union, not individual states.
Hönisch believes that an AfD-led government in even a single state would mark not merely a symbolic shift but a genuine turning point for the entire country — eastern Germany is often described as a kind of "laboratory" for political trends that later spread nationwide. What's more, state representatives sit in the Bundesrat, the upper house of parliament, which would give AfD leverage over national — and even European — politics.
Source: seznamzpravy.cz