China's share of global exports is growing faster than forecast — already nearing 40%

China's share of global exports rose by 2.5 percentage points over the past nine months — a pace that has caught even seasoned China-watchers off guard. According to Jens Eskelund, President of the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China, quoted by the Financial Times, he had expected the country to approach a 40% share of world exports only around 2030 — not now.

China's rapidly growing trade surplus in recent years has increasingly worried its largest trading partners, the European Union and the United States, which fear that cheap Chinese goods will strip local companies of orders and lead to job losses.

A record trade surplus

Between January and August, China's trade surplus reached $805.5 billion (17.068 trillion koruna), the Financial Times reports, citing data from China observers. At this pace, the figure could surpass last year's record of $1.2 trillion (25.4 trillion koruna).

"China's growing share of global exports could be an opportunity if European companies manage to make effective use of trade links and logistics. But at the same time, it highlights the need not to rely on a single region and to seek out other suppliers," says Ivana Brancuzká, director of the consulting firm Crowe.

Eskelund's remarks came as the EU Chamber of Commerce in China published a nearly 400-page report calling for reforms across a range of Chinese sectors — from medical equipment and financial services to maritime shipping — to make it easier for European companies to access the Chinese market.

European business concerns and Trump's talks

European companies fear that a flood of cheaper Chinese goods will cost jobs and weaken European industry, echoing what already happened in the past with steelmaking and solar panel production. As a result, the EU is discussing the introduction of new tariffs. According to the chamber, Beijing continues to expand its production capacity even as domestic consumption in China remains weak — partly due to the prolonged crisis in the property market.

China itself rejects the criticism, arguing that its strong exports of electric vehicles, batteries, solar technology and steel reflect the country's competitive advantage rather than excess production capacity. China's direct trade surplus with the United States has been shrinking in recent years, though a portion of Chinese exports to North America now passes through third countries.

US President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping are set to meet on Thursday in Washington, with talks expected to focus on extending the trade truce between the two countries.

According to Brancuzká, the decisive factor in the coming years will not just be the volume of Chinese exports but also how their structure evolves — how quickly Chinese companies shift from cheap goods to more technologically advanced products. "This could have an even greater impact on global trade than the growth in shipment volumes itself," she concluded.

Around Prague, based on reporting by novinky.cz