El Niño Breaks Records: Meteorologist Warns of Its Impact on Winter in Czechia

El Niño, which began forming this spring, is rapidly gaining strength and could become the most powerful on record, according to forecasts. This was revealed in an interview by meteorologist Michal Žák, who noted that the temperature anomaly in the key Niño 3.4 region of the Pacific Ocean already exceeds two degrees, with some models projecting a rise to three degrees.

According to the expert, such rapid intensification of the phenomenon didn't come as a complete surprise — spring forecasts had already pointed to intensive and fast development. The question now isn't whether this El Niño will be record-breaking, but exactly how large the temperature anomaly will grow.

Near-Certainty Through February

The World Meteorological Organization estimates the probability that El Niño will persist through February at nearly one hundred percent. Žák explained that such high forecast accuracy stems from the fact that the phenomenon had already fully formed by early autumn, and historical data on the behavior of strong El Niño events allows for more confident predictions of its duration — unlike spring forecasts, made well before the phenomenon's peak.

Record-Warm Oceans Amplify the Effect

What's especially concerning is that the current El Niño is developing against a backdrop of record-high global ocean temperatures. According to the meteorologist, it's precisely this combination of a strong El Niño and unprecedentedly warm waters that could lead to extreme consequences — amplified by climate change, which pumps additional energy into the system.

Žák warned that if the average global temperature next year exceeds the level of the second half of the 19th century by 1.7 degrees, this would represent a truly exceptional situation. Excess energy in the climate system could manifest as more intense storms, tropical cyclones, and heat waves than the world has become accustomed to.

Peak Impact Expected in 2027

Since heat from the ocean transfers into the atmosphere gradually, the greatest impact of El Niño on global temperature, according to the meteorologist's estimate, won't appear immediately but rather in 2027. That said, barring unforeseen events such as a major volcanic eruption, next year could become the hottest on record.

As for Europe, El Niño's influence here is traditionally weaker than in other regions of the world — the farther from the Pacific Ocean, the weaker the signal, which is further dampened by internal climate variability. For weather in Europe, including Czechia, processes occurring in the Atlantic matter far more, the expert noted.

Around Prague, based on reporting by novinky.cz