"Escalation is inevitable": experts warn Russia is already testing NATO

Michal Koudelka, head of the Czech Security Information Service (BIS), and other heads of European intelligence agencies have warned that Russia could test NATO's resilience within months rather than years — potentially even through a limited invasion of one of the alliance's member states. The warning comes from a fresh assessment by European intelligence officials, which American agencies have also joined.

The test of the alliance is already under way

According to American intelligence reports that surfaced in the media in August, Moscow could launch a "limited invasion" within months to test NATO's resolve. But experts note that testing the alliance doesn't necessarily mean a classic military attack — Russia is capable of acting through sabotage, cyberattacks, airspace violations and operations whose authorship cannot be immediately proven.

"If you ask what such an attack would look like, in my view it's already happening. Russia has been testing NATO in Europe for a long time, at least since 2022, and in fact even earlier. We've seen a huge increase in various kinds of hybrid attacks, and I think this year will bring another noticeable jump," says Maksym Beznosiuk, an analyst specializing in Ukraine and hybrid warfare.

Marek Menkiszak, head of the Russian department at the Polish Centre for Eastern Studies (OSW), agrees. "Escalation is inevitable, because what's being called the escalation of Russia's so-called hybrid war against Europe is essentially already under way. Russia began this escalation several months ago, and almost every day we're seeing its actions grow bolder and more aggressive," he notes. According to him, individual incidents aren't always easy to distinguish from accidents, and Moscow may use false-flag operations to shift the blame onto others.

Same methods, but harsher

In Menkiszak's view, we should expect an intensification of the methods Russia already favors: sabotage, attacks on critical infrastructure, cyber operations and disinformation campaigns. The number of drones crossing borders, along with other airspace violations, could also rise. "These will be the same patterns we've seen before: subversion, sabotage, terrorist attacks, strikes on infrastructure including railways, cyberattacks, and large-scale propaganda and disinformation campaigns," the expert adds.

The goal, he says, isn't necessarily the damage to infrastructure itself — what matters more is what happens afterward: how European governments and societies react. This, some politicians believe, is exactly where Europe has a problem: despite the growing number of incidents, a truly unified response has yet to materialize. The chair of the European Parliament's defense committee, German MEP Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann, admitted: "We are too timid — definitely. Vladimir Putin will never stop, he keeps pushing forward. We need to show that we are ready to defend ourselves."

Drones are causing particular concern in Europe: according to the European Commission, they are increasingly being used not just for reconnaissance but also for sabotage and attacks, disrupting airport operations and creating risks for critical infrastructure. This year the European Commission presented a plan to strengthen anti-drone defenses — it envisions better detection and identification of drones, coordinated incident response, the deployment of counter-drone systems at critical infrastructure and external borders, as well as joint exercises and closer cooperation between military and civilian services.

One European official responsible for security and defense matters noted that starting a discussion about a possible response is important in itself, but talk alone isn't enough: clear political will for a possible military response is needed, otherwise there's a risk of weakening the significance of the alliance's collective defense principle. The situation is further complicated by the uncertainty of the US position: President Donald Trump has repeatedly cast doubt on certain aspects of NATO's functioning and collective defense. "We've discussed the possibility of invoking Article 5 of the alliance's charter," an Eastern European diplomat said, "but we don't want escalation, and it could backfire on Putin himself, since it would show that Trump isn't ready to help."

Betting on Europe's Ukraine fatigue

According to Beznosiuk, Russia wants to turn the situation around the war in Ukraine to its own advantage. Viewing European support for Kyiv as one of the main obstacles to its victory, Moscow may be trying to raise the price Europeans themselves pay for that support. "Russia is trying to undermine support for Ukraine in Europe. It wants Europeans to focus on their own problems, on protecting infrastructure and air defense, while aid to Ukraine takes a back seat. This isn't just about testing NATO's response — it's also an attempt to destabilize Europe from within," the analyst says.

Menkiszak holds a similar view: "The Russians believe political factors here matter even more than military ones. Through a campaign of intimidation, fear-mongering and potential panic, they want to achieve political results." According to him, what matters isn't so much whether a specific attack or act of sabotage succeeds, but whether European countries can agree on a common response. "The Russians want to find out whether they can frighten European countries enough to make them start reconsidering their support for Ukraine. They want to raise the price of that support, deepen political divisions and influence the decisions of European governments," the expert explains.

According to Beznosiuk, individual incidents may not matter so much in themselves — Moscow is more likely watching whether they provoke a unified response or, on the contrary, whether the desire to downplay the problem and avoid further escalation prevails. In his view, Russia may shift the boundaries gradually: first through incidents whose responsibility is easy to cast doubt on, and later through more overt actions that will already be hard to explain away as accidents. "Violations are more likely against countries bordering Russia or Belarus," he believes, adding that Russian operatives may already be present in some NATO countries, waiting for further instructions.

The Baltics on alert

European countries, especially those located near Russia, are preparing for possible attacks, and certain points on the map are drawing particular attention. One of them is the Estonian city of Narva, right on the border with Russia: the Narva River separates Estonia from Russia's Ivangorod, and the border itself runs almost straight through the built-up city center. For Moscow, this area is especially sensitive because of the large Russian-speaking population on the Estonian side.

"For me, the most interesting place is Narva specifically. Russia has long been running information operations there, and on Russian-language social media I've seen the promotion of the idea of a so-called Narva People's Republic. Separatist symbols are appearing, along with claims that Russian-speaking residents need protection. This is a very worrying pattern," says Beznosiuk.

Another strategic point is the Suwałki Gap, a roughly hundred-kilometer stretch between Poland and Lithuania. It connects the Baltic states to the rest of NATO's territory while running between Russia's Kaliningrad region and Belarus. Places like these show why talk of a possible Russian test of NATO doesn't always mean a classic military strike: even a small incident in a sensitive location can bring serious political consequences for the alliance.

At the same time, as long as Ukraine holds back Putin's invasion, there is a consensus in the Baltic states that a direct Russian military attack remains unlikely for now. Moscow's current attempts to intimidate Europe are seen there primarily as a way to dissuade European countries from supporting Ukraine and to isolate Kyiv. But if the war in Ukraine ends in a truce and Russia is no longer tied down by fighting there, the security situation in the Baltic capitals could change quickly. And then what will matter is not just what actually happens, but how quickly and cohesively NATO is able to respond.

Around Prague, based on reporting by seznamzpravy.cz

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