Russia's Hybrid War: Expert Names Likely Targets of Attacks in Czechia

Czech Prime Minister Andrej Babiš has said the country is facing a hybrid war waged by Russia. Jan Padourek, a former senior official of Czech foreign intelligence and now a security expert, explained in an interview which targets in Czechia could come under attack — and why the government's rhetoric has shifted so sharply right now.

According to the expert, the prime minister's statement marked a real turning point. Babiš had already reacted to the drone incident near an aircraft in Leipzig, after which the Czech Foreign Ministry summoned the Russian ambassador in Prague. Tensions are rising across Europe: alongside Poland, officials in other countries are increasingly warning about the Russian threat, which Padourek believes suggests they have additional intelligence fueling their concern.

Defense industry firms at risk

The expert believes attacks on train stations or airports are unlikely. Far more realistic is the threat to companies producing ammunition, drones and military equipment that is being sent to Ukraine as part of European support efforts. According to him, the sabotage attacks already attributed in part to Russia — including incidents in Lithuania, Germany, and the Vrbětice case in Czechia itself — appear to serve several purposes.

First, to test the unity of NATO members and see whether Article 5 on collective defense would actually be triggered in the event of an escalation. Second, to strike at companies supplying weapons to Ukraine. Third, to sow fear and uncertainty in society so that citizens themselves start pressuring their governments to stop helping Kyiv, citing threats to their own security. "The worst thing we could do is give in to that pressure," Padourek stresses.

The expert recalls remarks by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, who claimed in August that Europe was effectively waging war against Russia and would face consequences. In Padourek's assessment, Moscow is prepared to escalate "further than we can imagine."

Czechia among Russia's closest adversaries

Commenting on warnings from Polish President Donald Tusk that Russia may use drones and missiles against countries supporting Ukraine, particularly this autumn and winter, the expert does not rule out similar attacks in Czechia. The country remains a notable backer of Ukraine: although the government no longer directly funds the Czech ammunition initiative, the initiative itself continues to operate. "From that perspective, we are certainly on the list of Russia's close enemies," says Padourek.

He notes that Russia's current goal is not to directly attack the armies or weapons of European countries, but rather to undermine NATO's unity and cohesion — ultimately aiming to break the alliance apart.

"Czechia is not fully prepared"

The expert openly admits that the country is not fully equipped to withstand such threats. This is not unique to Czechia — other NATO members also struggle, since their air and missile defense systems cannot fully prevent drones or missiles from getting through. Meanwhile, Czechia has only reluctantly pledged to reach defense spending of 2% of GDP, and allies are already criticizing the country for insufficient investment.

Padourek sees the politicization of security issues as the main problem: parliamentary parties — aside from those that openly deny Russia's role — cannot reach a consensus on national defense. Without a reliable security framework, he argues, all other state projects lose their meaning. The task for European leaders, including the Czech government, is to find common ground and credibly deter Russia from further escalation.

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Around Prague, based on reporting by seznamzpravy.cz