Three defeats in two weeks: tension mounts within Germany's ruling party over Chancellor Merz

Germany's ruling Christian Democratic Union (CDU) is going through its toughest stretch in years: within just two weeks, the party has suffered three consecutive, painful defeats in regional elections, prompting open talk within its ranks about the political future of Chancellor Friedrich Merz. CDU Secretary General Franziska Hoppermann described the mood among party leadership as "extremely tense" and "very serious."

In Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, the Christian Democrats scraped together just under 5% of the vote and failed to enter the state parliament altogether — the worst result in the party's history. The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) took first place there, with the Social Democrats (SPD) coming in second.

Berlin brought little comfort either: the CDU took roughly a fifth of the vote there, finishing second behind the post-communist Left Party and failing to defend its previous win. A victory in the capital might have offset the expected defeat in the northeast — but that didn't happen either.

"Shocked and devastated like never before"

The scale of the defeat rattled even former party leaders. Peter Altmaier, the ex-economics minister and long-time ally of Angela Merkel who has been a CDU member for 50 years, wrote that after Sunday's results he was "shocked and devastated like never before."

Merz himself, party chairman and chancellor, called the results in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern a "catastrophe" as soon as the first projections came in. The CDU, he said, "fought hard but was crushed" by the fierce battle between the SPD and the AfD. His tone at first echoed something like a farewell speech, but Merz quickly shifted gears, declaring: "Reforms must come" — and stressing that he remained ready to serve as a guarantor of stability "as CDU chairman and, above all, as federal chancellor." He acknowledged the defeat but made clear he has no intention of stepping down.

According to the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, Merz decided to address the results immediately rather than wait until Monday, so as to avoid letting speculation about his fate spiral out of control without his input. Der Zeit reports that he had reportedly been preparing his remarks since Saturday, without even informing the wider party leadership.

Three blows in a row

Pressure on the chancellor did not begin this weekend. Two weeks earlier, the CDU suffered a historic defeat in Saxony-Anhalt, where the AfD won 43.8% of the vote compared to just 17.2% for the Christian Democrats. Then came the collapse in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern and the loss of first place in the capital.

Daniel Peters, the CDU's leader in Mecklenburg, refused to shift all the blame onto the federal government. "Responsibility can't always be pushed off somewhere far away. In the CDU, we all bear it together," he said, naming a fiercely polarized campaign — one that boiled down to attitudes toward the AfD — as the main cause of the defeat. Merz himself attributes the loss to the party's failure in a direct showdown between the state's Social Democratic premier, Manuela Schwesig, and the far right.

But the problem runs deeper than a single region. According to a post-election survey by Infratest dimap, the CDU is being seriously hurt by broader dissatisfaction with federal policy: nine out of ten respondents believe the party promised a lot before the federal election and delivered little. The share of people who feel the CDU is out of touch with ordinary people's problems has climbed from 63% in 2021 to 86% today.

The chancellor himself shows up clearly in the numbers: 76% of voters who defected from the CDU to other parties admitted they had pinned high hopes on Merz but were disappointed. And 61% of them said they might vote for the CDU again if it weren't led by Merz. Even among those who still back the party, more than half say they're disillusioned with the chancellor — though 57% also feel the public criticism of Merz has gone too far.

What's working in the chancellor's favor

Despite all the turmoil, there was no open rebellion within the CDU on Sunday evening. All eight CDU state premiers had already come out before the elections against any leadership discussions, voicing their readiness to keep working with Merz.

According to two sources cited by Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, no one at the CDU presidium meeting called for the chancellor's resignation — the discussion was tense, but part of the leadership voiced support for him. Merz is also helped by the fact that there's no consensus among potential successors: German media have floated names like Hendrik Wüst, premier of the country's most populous state, North Rhine-Westphalia; Bavaria's Markus Söder; and Hesse's Boris Rhein — but none of them has openly staked a claim to the chancellorship. Der Spiegel notes that this very lack of unity is buying Merz time — though not unlimited time.

Betting on reform

Once again, Merz has tied his political future to reform, arguing that Germany is being weighed down by an overly cumbersome state bureaucracy, a deep economic transformation, and eroding trust in institutions. According to him, the government can no longer afford to put off change — although he made similar promises last year, and has repeated them several times since.

The initial reaction within the CDU was favorable: Christian von Stetten, head of the party's influential group of economically minded lawmakers, called Merz's demand "a clear assignment for the ministers." The coalition partner, the SPD, sees the election results differently. Party Secretary General Tim Klüssendorf said the federal government needs to ask itself what actually needs to change, arguing that reforms can't be pushed through by running "head against wall" while sticking to the same old course.

The CDU's expanded leadership will meet on Monday, followed by a meeting of the joint CDU/CSU parliamentary group on Tuesday. Only after that will it become clearer just how solid Merz's standing within the party remains after this string of defeats. For now, the chancellor has not thrown in the towel.

Source: seznamzpravy.cz